Author Bibliographies

Publications by Katherine D. Marvel

This citation list includes papers published while the author has been on staff at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It may include some publications based on research conducted prior to their having joined the institute.

In Press / Accepted

Singh, R., K. Tsigaridis, D. Bull, L.P. Swiler, B.M. Wagman, and K. Marvel, 2024: Mount Pinatubo's effect on the moisture-based drivers of plant productivity. Atmos. Chem. Phys., accepted.

2024

Marvel, K., and M. Webb, 2024: Towards robust community assessments of the Earth's climate sensitivity. Earth Syst. Dyn., 16, no. 1, 317, doi:10.5194/esd-16-317-2025.

Nielsen, M., B.I. Cook, K. Marvel, M. Ting, and J.E. Smerdon, 2024: The changing influence of precipitation on soil moisture drought with warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. Earth's Future, 12, no. 5, e2023EF003987, doi:10.1029/2023EF003987.

2023

Persad, G, B.H Samset, L.J Wilcox, R.J Allen, M.A Bollasina, B.B.B Booth, C. Bonfils, T. Crocker, M. Joshi, M.T Lund, K. Marvel, J. Merikanto, K. Nordling, S. Undorf, D.P van Vuuren, D.M Westervelt, and A. Zhao, 2023: Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments. Environ. Res., 2, no. 3, 032001, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/acd6af.

Schwarzwald, K., L. Goddard, R. Seager, M. Ting, and K. Marvel, 2023: Understanding CMIP6 biases in the representation of the greater Horn of Africa long and short rains. Clim. Dyn., 61, no. 3-4, 1229-1255, doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06622-5.

Singh, J., B.I. Cook, K. Marvel, S. McDermid, G.G. Persad, B. Rajaratnam, and D. Singh, 2023: Anthropogenic aerosols delay the emergence of GHGs-forced wetting of South Asian rainy seasons under a fossil-fuel intensive pathway. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, no. 18, e2023GL103949, doi:10.1029/2023GL103949.

2022

Chiang, F., B.I. Cook, S. McDermid, K. Marvel, G.A. Schmidt, L.S. Nazarenko, and M. Kelley, 2022: Responses of compound daytime and nighttime warm-dry and warm-humid events to individual anthropogenic forcings. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 8, 084015, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac80ce.

Cook, B.I, J.E Smerdon, E.R Cook, A.P. Williams, K.J Anchukaitis, J.S Mankin, K. Allen, L. Andreu-Hayles, T.R Ault, S. Belmecheri, S. Coats, B. Coulthard, B. Fosu, P. Grierson, D. Griffin, D.A Herrera, M. Ionita, F. Lehner, C. Leland, K. Marvel, M.S Morales, V. Mishra, J. Ngoma, H.T.T Nguyen, A. O'Donnell, J. Palmer, M.P Rao, M. Rodriguez-Caton, R. Seager, D.W Stahle, S. Stevenson, U.K Thapa, A.M Varuolo-Clarke, and E.K Wise, 2022: Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, no. 11, 741-757, doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1.

Cook, B.I., A.P. Williams, and K. Marvel, 2022: Projected changes in early summer ridging and drought over the Central Plains. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 104020, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac8e1a.

Hausfather, Z., K. Marvel, G.A. Schmidt, J.W. Nielsen-Gammon, and M. Zelinka, 2022: Climate simulations: Recognize the 'hot model' problem. Nature, 605, 26-29, doi:10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2.

Marvel, K., and B.I. Cook, 2022: Using machine learning to identify novel hydroclimate states. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A, 380, no. 2238, 20210287, doi:10.1098/rsta.2021.0287.

2021

Cook, B.I., J.S. Mankin, A.P. Williams, K.D. Marvel, J.E. Smerdon, and H. Liu, 2021: Uncertainties, limits, and benefits of climate change mitigation for soil moisture drought in Southwestern North America. Earth's Future, 9, no. 9, e2021EF002014, doi:10.1029/2021EF002014.

Marvel, K., B.I. Cook, C. Bonfils, J.E. Smerdon, A.P. Williams, and H. Liu, 2021: Projected changes to hydroclimate seasonality in the continental United States. Earth's Future, 9, no. 9, e2021EF002019, doi:10.1029/2021EF002019.

2020

Bonfils, C.J.W., B.D. Santer, J.C. Fyfe, K. Marvel, T.J. Phillips, and S.R.H. Zimmerman, 2020: Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity. Nat. Clim. Change, 10, no. 8, 726-731, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-0821-1.

Cook, B.I., J.S. Mankin, K. Marvel, A.P. Williams, J.E. Smerdon, and K.J. Anchukaitis, 2020: Twenty-first Century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earth's Future, 8, no. 6, e2019EF001461, doi:10.1029/2019EF001461.

Marvel, K., M. Biasutti, and C. Bonfils, 2020: Fingerprints of external forcing agents on Sahel rainfall: Aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, no. 8, 084023, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab858e.

Sherwood, S., M.J. Webb, J.D. Annan, K.C. Armour, P.M. Forster, J. Hargreaves, G. Hegerl, S.A. Klein, K.D. Marvel, E.J. Rohling, M. Watanabe, T. Andrews, P. Braconnot, C. Bretherton, G.L. Foster, Z. Hausfather, A.S. von der Heydt, R. Knutti, T. Mauritsen, J.R. Norris, C. Proistosescu, M. Rugenstein, G.A. Schmidt, K.B. Tokarska, and M.D. Zelinka, 2020: An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Rev. Geophys., 58, no. 4, e2019RG000678, doi:10.1029/2019RG000678.

Tokarska, K.B., G.C. Hegerl, A.P. Schurer, P.M. Forster, and K. Marvel, 2020: Observational constraints on the effective climate sensitivity from the historical period. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, no. 3, 034043, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab738f.

2019

Marvel, K., B.I. Cook, C.J.W. Bonfils, P.J. Durack, J.E. Smerdon, and A.P. Williams, 2019: Twentieth-century hydroclimate changes consistent with human influence. Nature, 569, no. 7754, 59-65, doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1149-8.

2018

Marvel, K.D., R. Pincus, G.A. Schmidt, and R.L. Miller, 2018: Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, no. 3, 1595-1601, doi:10.1002/2017GL076468.

2017

Bonfils, C., G. Anderson, B.D. Santer, T.J. Phillips, K.E. Taylor, M. Cuntz, M.D. Zelinka, K. Marvel, B.I. Cook, I. Cvijanovic, and P.J. Durack, 2017: Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity. J. Climate, 30, no. 17, 6883-6904, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1.

Marvel, K., 2017: The cloud conundrum. Sci. Amer., 317, no. 6, 72-77, doi:10.1038/scientificamerican1217-72.

Marvel, K., M. Biasutti, C. Bonfils, K.E. Taylor, Y. Kushnir, and B. Cook, 2017: Observed and projected changes to the precipitation annual cycle. J. Climate, 30, 4983-4995, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1.

Schmidt, G.A., J. Severinghaus, A. Abe-Ouchi, R.B. Alley, W. Broecker, E. Brook, K. Etheridge, K. Kawamura, R.F. Kelling, M. Leinen, K.D. Marvel, and T.F. Stocker, 2017: Overestimate of committed warming. Nature, 547, E16-E17, doi:10.1038/nature22803.

2016

Caldwell, P.M., M.D. Zelinka, K.E. Taylor, and K. Marvel, 2016: Quantifying the sources of inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity. J. Climate, 29, no. 2, 513-524, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0352.1.

Ivanova, D.P., P.J. Gleckler, K.E. Taylor, P.J. Durack, and K.D. Marvel, 2016: Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases. J. Climate, 29, no. 24, 8965-9004, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0026.1.

Marvel, K., G.A. Schmidt, R.L. Miller, and L. Nazarenko, 2016: Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. Nat. Clim. Change, 6, no. 4, 386-389, doi:10.1038/nclimate2888.

2015

Bonfils, C.J.W., B.D. Santer, T.J. Phillips, K. Marvel, L.R. Leung, C. Doutriaux, and A. Capotondi, 2015: Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate. J. Climate, 28, no. 24, 9997-10013, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0341.1.

Marvel, K., G. Schmidt, K. Tsigaridis, and B.I. Cook, 2015: Sensitivity to factors underlying the hiatus. US CLIVAR Variations, 13, no. 3, 25-29.

Marvel, K., G.A. Schmidt, D. Shindell, C. Bonfils, A.N. LeGrande, L. Nazarenko, and K. Tsigaridis, 2015: Do responses to different anthropogenic forcings add linearly in climate models? Environ. Res. Lett., 10, no. 10, 104010, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104010.

Marvel, K., M. Zelinka, S.A. Klein, C. Bonfils, P. Caldwell, C. Doutriaux, B.D. Santer, and K.E. Taylor, 2015: External influences on modeled and observed cloud trends. J. Climate, 28, no. 12, 4820-4840, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00734.1.

2013

Marvel, K., and C. Bonfils, 2013: Identifying external influences on global precipitation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 110, no. 48, 19301-19306, doi:10.1073/pnas.1314382110.

Marvel, K., D. Ivanova, and K.E. Taylor, 2013: Scale space methods for climate model analysis. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, no. 11, 5082-5097, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50433.

Marvel, K., B. Kravitz, and K. Caldeira, 2013: Geophysical limits to global wind power. Nat. Clim. Change, 3, no. 2, 118-121, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1683.

2010

Marvel, K., and U. Agvaanluvsan, 2010: Random matrix theory models of electric grid topology. Physica A, 389, no. 24, 5836-5851, doi:10.1016/j.physa.2010.08.009.

2008

Marvel, K., and D. Wesley, 2008: Tunneling with negative tension. J. High Energy Phys., 2008, no. 12, 34, doi:10.1088/1126-6708/2008/12/034.

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