Author Bibliographies
Publications by Jonas Jägermeyr
This citation list includes papers published while the author has been affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. It may include some publications based on research conducted prior to their having joined the institute.
Submitted / In Review
Frieler, K., S. Lange, J. Schewe, M. Mengel, S. Treu, C. Otto, J. Volkholz, C.P.O. Reyer, S. Heinicke, C. Jones, J.L. Blanchard, C.S. Harrison, C.M. Petrik, T.D. Eddy, K. Ortega-Cisneros, C. Novaglio, R. Heneghan, D.P. Tittensor, O. Maury, M. Büchner, T. Vogt, D. Quesada Chacón, K. Emanuel, C.-Y. Lee, S.J. Camargo, , S. Rabin, J. Klar, I.D. Vega del Valle, L. Novak, I.J. Sauer, G. Lasslop, S. Chadburn, E. Burke, A. Gallego-Sala, N. Smith, J. Chang, S. Hantson, C. Burton, A. Gädeke, F. Li, S.N. Gosling, H. Müller Schmied, F. Hattermann, T. Hickler, R. Marcé, D. Pierson, W. Thiery, D. Mercado-Bettín, R. Ladwig, A.I. Ayala-Zamora, M. Forrest, M. Bechtold, R. Reinecke, I. de Graaf, J.O. Kaplan, A. Koch, and M. Lengaigne, 2025: Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II). Geosci. Model Dev., submitted.
Liu, X., T. Gasser, J. Ma, J. Liu, , C. Müller, C. Folberth, F. Zabel, A. Jain, W. Liu, and H. Webber, 2025: A food crop yield emulator for integration in the compact Earth system model OSCAR (OSCAR-crop v1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., submitted.
Sweet, L., C. Müller, , and J. Zscheischler, 2025: A data-driven method for identifying climate drivers of agricultural yield failure from daily weather data. Geosci. Model Dev., submitted.
2026
Cong, J., C. Zhao, S. Asseng, X. Wang, C. Müller, , X. Tian, Z. Liu, J. Zhao, B. Gao, Z. Zhang, and X. Yang, 2026: Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production. One Earth, 9, no. 1, 101464, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101464.
Feng, S., J. Zscheischler, Z. Hao, , C. Müller, and E. Bevacqua, 2026: The influence of spatial correlations in crop production on global crop failures in model simulations. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 379, 111021, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111021.
Liu, Y., J. Chen, W. Cheng, X. Wang, T. Pan, J. Liu, Y. Lu, E. Zhang, S. Huang, J. Zhang, D. Lv, Q. Tan, J. Chen, C. Wang, Y. Zeng, H. Wang, J. Peñuelas, Y.-guan Zhu, C. Müller, J. Zhang, S. Kang, S. Li, J. Huang, W. Xie, W. Wu, , Y. Zhu, P. Havlik, J. Chang, T. Lin, B. Yu, and S. Piao, 2026: Multidimensional synergistic adaptation enhances the systemic resilience in China's food security. Natl. Sci. Rev., 13, no. 2, nwaf587, doi:10.1093/nsr/nwaf587.
2025
Bajaj, K., Z. Mehrabi, T. Kastner, , C. Müller, F. Schwarzmüller, T.W. Hertel, and N. Ramankutty, 2025: Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations. PLOS ONE, 20, no. 1, e0314722, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0314722.
Clark, B., A. Robock, L. Xia, S.S. Rabin, , and , 2025: Stratospheric aerosol climate intervention could reduce crop nutritional value. Environ. Res. Lett., 20, no. 11, 114083, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ae1151.
Clark, B., A. Robock, L. Xia, S.S. Rabin, , G. Hoogenboom, and , 2025: Maize yield changes under sulfate aerosol climate intervention using three global gridded crop models. Earth's Future, 13, no. 2, e2024EF005269, doi:10.1029/2024EF005269.
, , D. MacCarthy, , , , , B. Freduah, G. Wesley, S. Narh, E. Mendez Leal, and , 2025: Modeling the productivity of opportunity crops across Africa under climate change in support of the vision for adapted crops and soils. Nat. Plants, 11, no. 12, 2476-2486, doi:10.1038/s41477-025-02157-9.
Han, J., Y. Luo, Z. Zhang, J. Xu, Y. Chen, S. Asseng, , C. M$uumL$ller, J.E Olesen, R. Rötter, and F. Tao, 2025: Planting area and production decreased for winter-triticeae crops but increased for rapeseed in Ukraine with climatic impacts dominating. Geogr. Sustain., doi:10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.006.
Li, L., B. Wang, P. Feng, C. Lu, , S. Asseng, J.-J. Luo, M.T. Harrison, Q. He, K. Liu, D.L. Liu, Y. Li, H. Feng, G. Yang, C. Zhao, K.H.M. Siddique, H. Tian, and Q. Yu, 2025: Global warming increases the risk of crop yield failures driven by climate oscillations. One Earth, 8, no. 6, 101318, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101318.
Luchtenbelt, H., J. Doelman, A. Bos, V. Daioglou, , C. Müller, E. Stehfest, and D. van Vuuren, 2025: Quantifying food security and mitigation risks consequential to climate change impacts on crop yields. Environ. Res. Lett., 20, no. 1, 014001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad97d3.
Nóia Júnior, R.S., , I.N. Athanasiadis, F. Ewert, M.T. Harrison, , P. Martre, C. Müller, T. Palosuo, M. Salmerón, H. Webber, D.S. Maccarthy, and S. Asseng, 2025: Crop models for future food systems. One Earth, 8, no. 10, 101487, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101487.
Sundiang, M., T. Diniz Oliveira, D. Mason-D'Croz, M. Gibson, F. Beier, L. Benavidez, B.L. Bodirsky, A. Bos, M. Chepeliev, D.M.-C. Chen, T. de Lange, J. Doelman, S. Dunston, S. Frank, S. Fujimori, T. Hasegawa, P. Havlik, J. Hristov, , M. Kozicka, M. Kuiper, P. Kyle, H. Lotze-Campen, H. Luchtenbelt, A. Mishra, C. Müller, G. Nelson, A. Palazzo, I. Pérez Domínguez, A. Popp, R. Sands, M. Springmann, E. Stehfest, T. Sulser, K. Takahashi, G. Tassinari, F. Thom, P. Thornton, K. Tsuchiya, W.-J. van Zeist, H. van Meijl, D. van der Mensbrugghe, D. Van Vuuren, H.H.E. van Zanten, I. Weindl, K. Wiebe, X. Zhao, and M. Herrero, 2025: Bundling measures for food systems transformation: a global, multimodel assessment. Lancet Planet. Health, 9, no. 10, doi:10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101339.
Waha, K., C. Folberth, H. Biemans, E. Boere, A. Bondeau, A. Hartley, G. Hoogenboom, , Y. Liu, C. Mathison, C. Müller, A. Nkwasa, S. Olin, , K. de Vos, J.W. White, K. Williams, and Q. Yu, 2025: Land use modelling needs to better account for multiple cropping to inform pathways for sustainable agriculture. Commun. Earth Environ., 6, 756, doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02724-0.
, , B.S. Freduah, G.O. Wesley, D.S. MacCarthy, S. Narh, , , , E. Mendez Leal, S. Asseng, C. Zhao, , and , 2025: Climate-crop models to support opportunity crop adaptation in Africa. Nat. Commun., 16, no. 1, 11186, doi:10.1038/s41467-025-66180-2.
Yao, Y., Y. Satoh, N. van Maanen, S. Taranu, J. Keune, S.J. De Hertog, S. Lampe, D.M. Lawrence, W.J. Sacks, Y. Wada, A. Ducharne, , S.I. Seneviratne, L. Liu, J.R. Buzan, , and W. Thiery, 2025: Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress. Nat. Commun., 16, no. 1, 9326, doi:10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1.
Yao, Y., W. Thiery, A. Ducharne, , A. Ding, S.J. De Hertog, P. Sieber, K.S. Aas, P.F. Arboleda-Obando, J. Colin, M. Costantini, B. Decharme, D.M. Lawrence, P. Lawrence, L.R. Leung, M.-H. Lo, N. Devaraju, R.-J. Wu, T. Zhou, , S.S. McDermid, Y. Pokhrel, Y. Satoh, T. Yokohata, L. Gudmundsson, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2025: Irrigation-induced land water depletion aggravated by climate change. Nat. Water, 3, no. 12, 1424-1435, doi:10.1038/s44221-025-00529-1.
Zantout, K., J. Balkovic, M. Billing, C. Folberth, S.N. Gosling, T. Hank, S. Hantson, T. Iizumi, A. Ito, , A.K. Jain, N. Khabarov, S. Kou-Giesbrecht, F. Li, M. Li, T.-S. Lin, W. Liu, C. Müller, M. Okada, S. Ostberg, K. Otta, S. Rabin, C.P.O. Reyer, C. Scheer, J.M. Schneider, F. Zabel, K. Frieler, and J. Schewe, 2025: Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming. Nat. Commun., 16, no. 1, 9746, doi:10.1038/s41467-025-65600-7.
2024
Bo, Y., X. Wang, K.J. van Groenigen, B.A. Linquist, C. Müller, T. Li, J. Yang, , Y. Qin, and F. Zhou, 2024: Improved alternate wetting and drying irrigation increases global water productivity. Nat. Food, 5, no. 12, 1005-1013, doi:10.1038/s43016-024-01081-z.
Frieler, K., J. Volkholz, S. Lange, J. Schewe, M. Mengel, M.R. Rivas López, C. Otto, C.P.O. Reyer, D.N. Karger, J.T. Malle, S. Treu, C. Menz, J.L. Blanchard, C.S. Harrison, C.M. Petrik, T.D. Eddy, K. Ortega-Cisneros, C. Novaglio, Y. Rousseau, R.A. Watson, C. Stock, X. Liu, R. Heneghan, D. Tittensor, O. Maury, M. Büchner, T. Vogt, T. Wang, F. Sun, I.J. Sauer, J. Koch, I. Vanderkelen, , C. Müller, J. Klar, I.D. Vega del Valle, G. Lasslop, S. Chadburn, E. Burke, A. Gallego-Sala, N. Smith, J. Chang, S. Hantson, C. Burton, A. Gädeke, F. Li, S.N. Gosling, H. Müller Schmied, F. Hattermann, J. Wang, F. Yao, T. Hickler, R. Marcé, D. Pierson, W. Thiery, D. Mercado-Bettín, R. Ladwig, A.I. Ayala-Zamora, M. Forrest, and M. Bechtold, 2024: Scenario set-up and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Geosci. Model Dev., 17, no. 1, 1-51, doi:10.5194/gmd-17-1-2024.
, , E.A. Ainsworth, F.A.A. Oliveira, S. Asseng, K. Boote, J. Elliott, L. Emberson, I. Foster, G. Hoogenboom, D. Kelly, , and K. Sharps, 2024: Modeling the effects of tropospheric ozone on the growth and yield of global staple crops with DSSAT v4.8.0. Geosci. Model Dev., 17, no. 7, 2547-2567, doi:10.5194/gmd-17-2547-2024.
Han, J., Z. Zhang, J. Xu, Y. Chen, , J. Cao, Y. Luo, F. Cheng, H. Zhuang, H. Wu, Q. Mei, J. Song, and F. Tao, 2024: Threat of low-frequency high-intensity floods to global cropland and crop yields. Nat. Sustain., 7, no. 8, 994-1006, doi:10.1038/s41893-024-01375-x.
Lumsden, C.L., , L. Ziska, and J. Fanzo, 2024: Critical overview of the implications of a global protein transition in the face of climate change: Key unknowns and research imperatives. One Earth, 7, no. 7, 1187-1201, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.013.
Monaco, H., C. Ortiz, L. Caetano, C. Müller, and , 2024: The economics of farming expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado under possible effects of climate change. Int. Food Agribus. Manag. Rev., 27, no. 3, 441-462, doi:10.22434/ifamr1028.
Müller, C., , J.A. Franke, , J. Balkovic, P. Ciais, M. Dury, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, T. Hank, M. Hoffmannn, C. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, N. Khabarov, W. Liu, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, X. Wang, K. Williams, F. Zabel, and J.W. Elliott, 2024: Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for functionality-based model evaluation. Earth's Future, 12, no. 3, e2023EF003773, doi:10.1029/2023EF003773.
Orlov, A., , C. Müller, A.S. Daloz, F. Zabel, S. Minoli, W. Liu, T.-S. Lin, A.K. Jain, C. Folberth, M. Okada, B. Poschlod, A. Smerald, J.M. Schneider, and J. Sillmann, 2024: Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario. One Earth, 7, no. 7, 1250-1265, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012.
, , , and C. Müller, 2024: Non-linear climate change impacts on crop yields may mislead stakeholders. Earth's Future, 12, no. 4, e2023EF003842, doi:10.1029/2023EF003842.
Steinbuks, J., Y. Cai, , and T.W. Hertel, 2024: Assessing effects of climate and technology uncertainties in large natural resource allocation problems. Geosci. Model Dev., 17, no. 12, 4791-4819, doi:10.5194/gmd-17-4791-202.
Wang, B., , G.J. O'Leary, D. Wallach, , P. Feng, L. Li, D.L. Liu, C. Waters, Q. Yu, S. Asseng, and , 2024: Pathways to identify and reduce uncertainties in agricultural climate impact assessments. Nat. Food, 5, no. 7, 550-556, doi:10.1038/s43016-024-01014-w.
2023
Buckland, C.E., D.S.G. Thomas, , C. Müller, and A.C. Smith, 2023: Drought-tolerant succulent plants as an alternative crop under future global warming scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa. GCB Bioenergy, 15, no. 10, 1287-1308, doi:10.1111/gcbb.13095.
Carducci, B., , , and J. Fanzo, 2023: Rising to the challenge: Producing and sustaining a nutrient-dense and climate-resilient food basket for all. One Earth, 6, no. 11, 1443-1446, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.10.006.
Fei, C., , B. McCarl, , , , , M.C. Sarofim, P. Schultz, and A. Vargo, 2023: Future climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields, production, and market. Anthropocene, 100386, doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100386.
Kornhuber, K., C. Lesk, C.F. Schleussner, , P. Pfleiderer, and R.M. Horton, 2023: Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections. Nat. Commun., 14, no. 1, 3528, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-38906-7.
Li, L., B. Wang, P. Feng, , S. Asseng, C. Müller, I. Macadam, D.L. Liu, C. Waters, Y. Zhang, Q. He, Y. Shi, S. Chen, X. Guo, Y. Li, J. He, H. Feng, G. Yang, H. Tian, and Q. Yu, 2023: The optimization of model ensemble composition and size can enhance the robustness of crop yield projections. Commun. Earth Environ., 4, no. 1, 362, doi:10.1038/s43247-023-01016-9.
Liu, K., M.T. Harrison, H. Yan, D.L. Liu, H. Meinke, G. Hoogenboom, B. Wang, B. Peng, K. Guan, , E. Wang, F. Zhang, X. Yin, S. Archontoulis, L. Nie, A. Badea, J. Man, D Wallach, J. Zhao, A. Benjumea, Y. Zhang, W. Wang, S. Fahad, F. Tao, Z. Zhang, R. Rötter, Y. Yuan, M. Zhu, P. Dai, J. Nie, Y. Yang, X. Tian, and M. Zhou, 2023: Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates. Nat. Commun., 14, 765, doi:10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4.
Liu, W., T. Ye, C. Müller, , J.A. Franke, H. Stephens, and S. Chen, 2023: The statistical emulators of GGCMI phase 2: Responses of year-to-year variation of crop yield to CO2, temperature, water and nitrogen perturbations. Geosci. Model Dev., 16, no. 23, 7203-7221, doi:10.5194/gmd-16-7203-2023.
, M. Nocco, P. Lawston-Parker, J. Keune, Y. Pokhrel, M. Jain, , L. Brocca, C. Massari, A.D. Jones, P. Vahmani, W. Thiery, Y. Yao, A. Bell, L. Chen, W. Dorigo, N. Hanasaki, S. Jasechko, M.-H. Lo, R. Mahmood, V. Mishra, N.D. Mueller, D. Niyogi, S.S. Rabin, L. Sloat, Y. Wada, L. Zappa, F. Chen, , H. Kim, D. Lombardozzi, J. Polcher, D. Ryu, J. Santanello, Y. Satoh, S. Seneviratne, D. Singh, and T. Yokohata, 2023: Irrigation in the Earth system. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 4, no. 7, 435-453, doi:10.1038/s43017-023-00438-5.
Molina Bacca, E., M. Stevanović, L. Bodirsky, K. Karstens, D. Meng, C. Chen, D. Leip, C. Müller, S. Minoli, J. Heinke, and , 2023: Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming. Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 284, doi:10.1038/s43247-023-00941-z.
2022
Bo, Y., , Z. Yin, Y. Jiang, J. Xu, H. Liang, and F. Zhou, 2022: Global benefits of non-continuous flooding to reduce greenhouse gases and irrigation water use without rice yield penalty. Glob. Change Biol., 28, no. 11, 3636-3650, doi:10.1111/gcb.16132.
Chrysafi, A., V. Virkki, M. Jalava, V. Sandström, J. Piipponen, M. Porkka, J.S. Lade, K. La Mere, L. Wang-Erlandsson, L. Scherer, S.L. Andersen, E. Bennett, A.K. Brauman, S.G. Cooper, A. De Palma, P. Döll, S.A. Downing, C.T. DuBois, I. Fetzer, E.A. Fulton, D. Gerten, H. Jaafar, , F. Jaramillo, M. Jung, H. Kahiluoto, L. Lassaletta, W.A. Mackay, D. Mason-D'Croz, M.M. Mekonnen, K.L. Nash, A.V. Pastor, N. Ramankutty, B. Ridoutt, S. Siebert, B.I. Simmons, A. Staal, Z. Sun, A. Tobian, A. Usubiaga-Liaño, R.J. Van der Ent, A. Van Soesbergen, P.H. Verburg, Y. Wada, S. Zipper, and M. Kummu, 2022: Quantifying Earth system interactions for sustainable food production via expert elicitationion. Nat. Sustain., 5, no. 10, 830-842, doi:10.1038/s41893-022-00940-6.
Cinner, J.E., I.R. Caldwell, L. Thiault, J. Ben, J.L. Blanchard, M. Coll, A. Diedrich, T.D. Eddy, J.D. Everett, C. Folberth, D. Gascuel, J. Guiet, G.G. Gurney, R.F. Heneghan, , N. Jiddawi, R. Lahari, J. Kuange, W. Liu, O. Maury, C. Müller, C. Novaglio, J. Palacios-Abrantes, C.M. Petrik, A. Rabearisoa, D.P. Tittensor, A. Wamukota, and R. Pollnac, 2022: Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities. Nat. Commun., 13, no. 1, 3530, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4.
Franke, J.A., C. Müller, S. Minoli, J. Elliott, C. Folberth, C. Gardner, T. Hank, R.C. Izaurralde, , C. Jones, W. Liu, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, , H. Stephens, F. Zabel, and E. Moyer, 2022: Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. Glob. Change Biol., 28, no. 1, 167-181, doi:10.1111/gcb.15868.
Hedlund, J., H. Carlsen, S. Croft, C. West, Ö. Bodin, E. Stokeld, , and C. Müller, 2022: Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 12, 124040, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca68b.
Heinicke, S., K. Frieler, , and M. Mengel, 2022: Global gridded crop models underestimate yield responses to droughts and heatwaves. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 4, 044026, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac592e.
Hochman, G., H. Zhang, L. Xia, A. Robock, S. Aleti, D. van der Mensbrugghe, and , 2022: Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 5, 054003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac61c7.
Lesk, C., W. Anderson, A. Rigden, O. Coast, , , K.F. Davis, and M. Konar, 2022: Compound heat and moisture extreme impacts on global crop yields under climate change. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 3, no. 12, 872-889, doi:10.1038/s43017-022-00368-8.
Minoli, S., , S. Asseng, A. Urfels, and C. Müller, 2022: Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change. Nat. Commun., 13, no. 1, 7079, doi:10.1038/s41467-022-34411-5.
Nkwasa, A., C.J. Chawanda, , and A. van Griensven, 2022: Improved representation of agricultural land use and crop management for large scale hydrological impact simulation in Africa using SWAT+. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, no. 1, 71-89, doi:10.5194/hess-26-71-2022.
Xia, L., A. Robock, K. Scherrer, C. Harrison, B.L. Bodirsky, I. Weindl, , C. Bardeen, O.B. Toon, and R. Heneghan, 2022: Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nat. Food, 3, no. 8, 586-596, doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0.
Yao, Y., I. Vanderkelen, D. Lombardozzi, S. Swenson, D. Lawrence, , L. Grant, and W. Thiery, 2022: Implementation and evaluation of irrigation techniques in the Community Land Model. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, no. 12, e2022MS003074, doi:10.1029/2022MS003074.
2021
Bardeen, C.G., D.E. Kinnison, O.B. Toon, M.J. Mills, F. Vitt, L. Xia, , N.S. Lovenduski, K.J.N. Scherrer, M. Clyne, and A. Robock, 2021: Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war results in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, no. 18, e2021JD035079, doi:10.1029/2021JD035079.
Brás, T.A., J. Seixas, N. Carvalhais, and , 2021: Severity of drought and heatwave crop losses tripled over the last five decades in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett., 16, no. 6, 065012, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abf004.
Falkendal, T., C. Otto, J. Schewe, , M. Konar, M. Kummu, B. Watkins, and , 2021: Grain export restrictions during COVID-19 risk food insecurity in many low- and middle-income countries. Nat. Food, 2, no. 1, 11-14, doi:10.1038/s43016-020-00211-7.
, C. Müller, , J. Elliott, J. Balkovic, O. Castillo, B. Faye, I. Foster, C. Folberth, J.A. Franke, K. Fuchs, J. Guarin, J. Heinke, G. Hoogenboom, T. Iizumi, A.K. Kain, D. Kelly, N. Khabarov, S. Lange, T.-S. Lin, W. Liu, O. Mialyk, S. Minoli, E.J. Moyer, M. Okada, , C. Porter, S. Rabin, C. Scheer, J.M. Schneider, J.F. Schyns, R. Skalsky, A. Smerald, T. Stella, H. Stephens, H. Webber, F. Zabel, and , 2021: Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models. Nat. Food, 2, no. 11, 873-885, doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00400-y.
Liu, W., T. Ye, , C. Müller, S. Chen, X. Liu, and P. Shi, 2021: Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas. Environ. Res. Lett., 16, no. 9, 094045, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac1fbb.
Müller, C., J. Franke, , , J. Elliott, E. Moyer, J. Heinke, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, L. Francois, T. Hank, R. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, W. Liu, S. Olin, T. Pugh, K. Williams, and F. Zabel, 2021: Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett., 16, no. 3, 034040, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fc.
, , C. Müller, J. Elliott, , A. Arneth, J. Balkovic, D. Deryng, C. Folberth, T. Iizumi, R.C. Izaurralde, N. Khabarov, P. Lawrence, W. Liu, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, , G. Sakurai, E. Schmid, B. Sultan, X. Wang, A. de Wit, and H. Yang, 2021: Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 300, 108313, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108313.
Siderius, C., H. Biemans, D. Conway, W.W. Immerzeel, , and B. Ahmad, 2021: Financial feasibility of water conservation in agriculture. Earth's Future, 9, no. 3, e2020EF001726, doi:10.1029/2020EF001726.
Thiery, W., J. Lange, S. Rogelj, C.-F. Schleussner, L. Gudmundsson, S.I. Seneviratne, M. Andrijevic, K. Frieler, K. Emanuel, T. Geiger, D.N. Bresch, F. Zhao, S.N. Willner, M. Büchner, J. Volkholz, N. Bauer, J. Chang, P. Ciais, M. Dury, L. François, M. Grillakis, S.N. Gosling, N. Hanasaki, T. Hickler, V. Huber, A. Ito, , N. Khabarov, A. Koutroulis, W. Liu, W. Lutz, M. Mengel, C. Müller, S. Ostberg, C.P.O. Reyer, T. Stacke, and Y. Wada, 2021: Intergenerational inequities in exposure to climate extremes. Science, 374, no. 6564, 158-160, doi:10.1126/science.abi7339.
Wang, X., C. Müller, J. Elliot, N.D. Mueller, P. Ciais, , J. Gerber, P. Dumas, C. Wang, H. Yang, L. Li, D. Deryng, C. Folberth, W. Liu, D. Makowski, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, A. Reddy, E. Schmid, S. Jeong, F. Zhou, and S. Piao, 2021: Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield. Nat. Commun., 12, no. 1, 1235, doi:10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5.
Zabel, F., C. Müller, J. Elliott, S. Minoli, , J.M. Schneider, J.A. Franke, E. Moyer, C. Folberth, M. Dury, L. Francois, W. Liu, T.A. Pugh, S. Olin, S.S. Rabin, W. Mauser, T. Hank, and , 2021: Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties. Glob. Change Biol., 27, no. 16, 3870-3882, doi:10.1111/gcb.15649.
2020
Franke, J., C. Müller, J. Elliott, , , A. Snyder, M. Dury, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, L. François, T. Hank, R.C. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, C. Jones, M. Li, W. Liu, S. Olin, M. Phillips, T.A.M. Pugh, A. Reddy, K. Williams, Z. Wang, F. Zabel, and E. Moyer, 2020: The GGCMI phase II emulators: Global gridded crop model responses to changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen (version 1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., 13, no. 9, 3995-4018, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-3995-2020.
Franke, J., C. Müller, J. Elliott, , , J. Balkovic, P. Ciais, M. Dury, P. Falloon, C. Folberth, L. François, T. Hank, M. Hoffmann, C. Izaurralde, I. Jacquemin, C. Jones, N. Khabarov, M. Koch, M. Li, W. Liu, S. Olin, , T.A.M. Pugh, A. Reddy, X. Wang, K. Williams, F. Zabel, and E. Moyer, 2020: The GGCMI Phase II experiment: Global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO2, temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0). Geosci. Model Dev., 13, no. 5, 2315-2336, doi:10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020.
Gerten, D., V. Heck, , B.L. Bodirsky, I. Fetzer, M. Jalava, M. Kummu, W. Lucht, J. Rockström, S. Schaphoff, and H.J. Schellnhuber, 2020: Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries. Nat. Sustain., 3, no. 3, 200-208, doi:10.1038/s41893-019-0465-1.
Huang, G., A.Y. Heokstra, M.S. Krol, A. Galindo, , C. Yu, and R. Wang, 2020: Water-saving agriculture can deliver deep water cuts for China. Resour. Conserv. Recycl., 154, 104578, doi:10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.104578.
, 2020: Agriculture's historic twin-challenge towards sustainable water use and food supply for all. Front. Sustain. Food Syst., 4, 35, doi:10.3389/fsufs.2020.00035.
, A. Robock, J. Elliott, C. Müller, L. Xia, N. Khabarov, C. Folberth, E. Schmid, W. Liu, F. Zabel, S.S. Rabin, , , J. Franke, I. Foster, S. Asseng, C.G. Bardeen, O.B. Toon, and , 2020: A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 117, no. 13, 7071-7081, doi:10.1073/pnas.1919049117.
Lange, S., J. Volkholz, T. Geiger, F. Zhao, I. Vega, T. Veldkamp, C.P.O. Reyer, L. Warszawski, V. Huber, , J. Schewe, D.N. Bresch, M. Büchner, J. Chang, P. Ciais, M. Dury, K. Emanuel, C. Folberth, D. Gerten, S.N. Gosling, M. Grillakis, N. Hanasaki, A.-J. Henrot, T. Hickler, Y. Honda, A. Ito, N. Khabarov, A. Koutroulis, W. Liu, C. Müller, K. Nishina, S. Ostberg, H. Müller Schmied, S.I. Seneviratne, T. Stacke, J. Steinkamp, W. Thiery, Y. Wada, S. Willner, H. Yang, M. Yoshikawa, C. Yue, and K. Frieler, 2020: Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales. Earth's Future, 8, no. 12, e2020EF001616, doi:10.1029/2020EF001616.
Schauberger, B., , and C. Gornott, 2020: A systematic review of local to regional yield forecasting approaches and frequently used data resources. Eur. J. Agron., 120, 126153, doi:10.1016/j.eja.2020.126153.
Scherrer, K.J.N., C.S. Harrison, R.F. Heneghan, E. Galbraith, C.G. Bardeen, J. Coupe, , N.S. Lovenduski, A. Luna, A. Robock, J. Stevens, S. Stevenson, O.B. Toon, and L. Xia, 2020: Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 117, no. 47, 29748-29758, doi:10.1073/pnas.2008256117.
Zhai, R., F. Tao, U. Lall, B. Fu, J. Elliott, and , 2020: Larger drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and economic productivity under 2.0 than 1.5°C warming. Earth's Future, 8, no. 7, e2019EF001398, doi:10.1029/2019EF001398.
2019
Brás, M.A., , and J. Seixas, 2019: Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries. Food Secur., 11, no. 6, 1373-1393, doi:10.1007/s12571-019-00975-2.
Minoli, S., C. Müller, J. Elliott, , , F. Zabel, M. Dury, C. Folberth, L. Francois, T. Hank, I. Jacquemin, W. Liu, S. Olin, and T.A.M. Pugh, 2019: Global response patterns of major rainfed crops to adaptation by maintaining current growing periods and irrigation. Earth's Future, 7, no. 12, 1464-1480, doi:10.1029/2018EF001130.
Stenzel, F., D. Gerten, C. Werner, and , 2019: Freshwater requirements of large-scale bioenergy plantations for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, no. 8, 084001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b4b.
2018
, and K. Frieler, 2018: Spatial variations in crop growing seasons pivotal to reproduce global fluctuations in maize and wheat yields. Sci. Adv., 4, no. 11, eaat4517, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aat4517.
2017
Frieler, K., S. Lange, F. Piontek, C.P.O. Reyer, J. Schewe, L. Warszawski, F. Zhao, L. Chini, S. Denvil, K. Emanuel, T. Geiger, K. Halladay, G. Hurtt, M. Mengel, D. Murakami, S. Ostberg, A. Popp, R. Riva, M. Stevanovic, T. Suzuki, J. Volkholz, E. Burke, P. Ciais, K. Ebi, T.D. Eddy, , E. Galbraith, S.N. Gosling, F. Hattermann, T. Hickler, J. Hinkel, C. Hof, V. Huber, J. Jägermeyr, V. Krysanova, R. Marcé, H. Müller Schmied, I. Mouratiadou, D. Pierson, D.P. Tittensor, R. Vautard, M. van Vliet, M.F. Biber, R.A. Betts, B.L. Bodirsky, , S. Frolking, C.D. Jones, H.K. Lotze, H. Lotze-Campen, R. Sahajpal, K. Thonicke, H. Tian, and Y. Yamagata, 2017: Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C global warming — Simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b). Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4321-4345, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4321-2017.
Kummu, M., M. Fader, D. Gerten, J.H.A. Guillaume, M. Jalava, , S. Pfister, M. Porkka, S. Siebert, and O. Varis, 2017: Bringing it all together: Linking measures to secure nations' food supply. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 29, 98-117, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2018.01.006.
