Publication Abstracts
Yao et al. 2025
Yao, Y., Y. Satoh, N. van Maanen, S. Taranu, J. Keune, S.J. De Hertog, S. Lampe, D.M. Lawrence, W.J. Sacks, Y. Wada, A. Ducharne, , S.I. Seneviratne, L. Liu, J.R. Buzan, , and W. Thiery, 2025: Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress. Nat. Commun., 16, no. 1, 9326, doi:10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1.
Irrigation has been investigated as an important historical climate forcing, but there is no study exploring its future climatic impacts considering possible changes in both extent and efficiency. Here, we address these issues via developing irrigation efficiency scenarios in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), implementing these in the Community Earth System Model, and applying them to generate projections over the period 2015-2074. We project that annual irrigation water withdrawal decreases under SSP1-2.6 (from ∼2100 to $twiddle1700 km3/yr) but increases under SSP3-7.0 (to ∼2400 m3/yr), with some new irrigation hot spots emerging, especially in Africa. Irrigation is projected to reduce the occurrence of dry-heat stress under both scenarios, but cannot reverse the warming trend due to greenhouse gas emission (e.g., increasing from ∼90 to around 600 and 1200 hours /yr in intensely irrigated areas, under two scenarios). Moreover, moist-heat extreme event frequency increases more substantially (by ≥1600 hours /yr under SSP3-7.0 in tropical regions), and irrigation further amplifies the hours of exposure (for example, by ≥100 hours /yr in South Asia), thereby raising the risk of moist-heat-related illnesses and mortality for exposed communities. Our results underscore the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, limiting irrigation expansion and improving irrigation efficiency to preserve water resources and decelerate escalating exposure to dry- and moist-heat stress.
Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]
BibTeX Citation
@article{ya06300k,
author={Yao, Y. and Satoh, Y. and van Maanen, N. and Taranu, S. and Keune, J. and De Hertog, S. J. and Lampe, S. and Lawrence, D. M. and Sacks, W. J. and Wada, Y. and Ducharne, A. and Cook, B. I. and Seneviratne, S. I. and Liu, L. and Buzan, J. R. and Jägermeyr, J. and Thiery, W.},
title={Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress},
year={2025},
journal={Nature Communication},
volume={16},
number={1},
pages={9326},
doi={10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1},
}
[ Close ]
RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ya06300k AU - Yao, Y. AU - Satoh, Y. AU - van Maanen, N. AU - Taranu, S. AU - Keune, J. AU - De Hertog, S. J. AU - Lampe, S. AU - Lawrence, D. M. AU - Sacks, W. J. AU - Wada, Y. AU - Ducharne, A. AU - Cook, B. I. AU - Seneviratne, S. I. AU - Liu, L. AU - Buzan, J. R. AU - Jägermeyr, J. AU - Thiery, W. PY - 2025 TI - Compounding future escalation of emissions- and irrigation-induced increases in humid-heat stress JA - Nat. Commun. JO - Nature Communication VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 9326 DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-64375-1 ER -
[ Close ]
