Publication Abstracts
Yang et al. 2025
Yang, Y., B. Tao, , C. Shen, D.S. Matteson, R. Cousin, and W. Ren, 2025: Widespread advances in corn and soybean phenology in response to future climate change across the United States. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 130, no. 4, e2024JG008266, doi:10.1029/2024JG008266.
Crop phenology regulates seasonal carbon and water fluxes between croplands and the atmosphere and provides essential information for monitoring and predicting crop growth dynamics and productivity. However, under rapid climate change and more frequent extreme events, future changes in crop phenological shifts have not been well investigated and fully considered in earth system modeling and regional climate assessments. Here, we propose an innovative approach combining remote sensing imagery and machine learning (ML) with climate and survey data to predict future crop phenological shifts across the US corn and soybean systems. Specifically, our projected findings demonstrate distinct acceleration patterns?under the RCP 4.5/RCP 8.5 scenarios, corn planting, silking, maturity, and harvesting stages would significantly advance by 0.94/1.66, 1.13/2.45, 0.89/2.68, and 1.04/2.16 days/decade during 2021?2099, respectively. Soybeans exhibit more muted responses with phenological stages showing relatively smaller negative trends (0.59, 1.08, 0.07, and 0.64 days/decade under the RCP 4.5 vs. 1.24, 1.53, 0.92, and 1.04 days/decade under the RCP 8.5). These spatially explicit projections illustrate how crop phenology would respond to future climate change, highlighting widespread and progressively earlier phenological timing. Based on these findings, we call for a specific effort to quantify the cascading effects of future phenology shifts on crop yield and carbon, water, and energy balances and, accordingly, craft targeted adaptive strategies.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{ya03300h,
author={Yang, Y. and Tao, B. and Ruane, A. C. and Shen, C. and Matteson, D. S. and Cousin, R. and Ren, W.},
title={Widespread advances in corn and soybean phenology in response to future climate change across the United States},
year={2025},
journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences},
volume={130},
number={4},
pages={e2024JG008266},
doi={10.1029/2024JG008266},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ya03300h AU - Yang, Y. AU - Tao, B. AU - Ruane, A. C. AU - Shen, C. AU - Matteson, D. S. AU - Cousin, R. AU - Ren, W. PY - 2025 TI - Widespread advances in corn and soybean phenology in response to future climate change across the United States JA - J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences VL - 130 IS - 4 SP - e2024JG008266 DO - 10.1029/2024JG008266 ER -
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