National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Publication Abstracts

Wiggins et al. 2025, submitted

Wiggins, E.B., Y. Chen, S. Coffield, R.D. Field, M. Follette-Cook, E.M. Gargulinski, T. Liu, T. McCabe, D.C. Morton, E. Orland, L. Ott, J.T. Randerson, C. Schmidt, A.J. Soja, and P.A. Wales, 2025: Variability in the diurnal cycle of fire radiative power for wildland fires in the Western United States. J. Geiphys. Res. Biogeosci., submitted.

A combination of climate change and fuel buildup has exacerbated wildfire activity and degraded air quality across the Western United States in recent years. Improvements in smoke forecasting capabilities and fire behavior models are urgently needed to support decision makers and safeguard communities. Many smoke forecasting models rely on a static diurnal cycle to distribute fire emissions, yet the behavior of new extreme fires may not match these predefined patterns. Here, we analyzed fire radiative power (FRP) measurements from geostationary satellite sensors (GOES-17 and 18) for 797 individual fires in the Western US from 2019-2023 to investigate variability in fire diurnal cycles as a function of fuel type, season, fire size, day of burning, and meteorological conditions. We developed the largest known modern fire diurnal cycle database (DiCeD) for the Western US, with annual updates planned for future years. The diurnal cycle climatology derived from our database indicates nighttime burning may be underestimated in operational smoke forecasting model frameworks, and we discovered nighttime burning increases as a function of fuel load and season. We also found an exceptionally high level of variability in the diurnal cycles, and demonstrated the need for an improved representation of a fire's diurnal cycle in smoke forecasting model frameworks.

Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]

@unpublished{wi02600k,
  author={Wiggins, E. B. and Chen, Y. and Coffield, S. and Field, R. D. and Follette-Cook, M. and Gargulinski, E. M. and Liu, T. and McCabe, T. and Morton, D. C. and Orland, E. and Ott, L. and Randerson, J. T. and Schmidt, C. and Soja, A. J. and Wales, P. A.},
  title={Variability in the diurnal cycle of fire radiative power for wildland fires in the Western United States},
  year={2025},
  journal={J. Geiphys. Res. Biogeosci.},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}
}

TY  - UNPB
ID  - wi02600k
AU  - Wiggins, E. B.
AU  - Chen, Y.
AU  - Coffield, S.
AU  - Field, R. D.
AU  - Follette-Cook, M.
AU  - Gargulinski, E. M.
AU  - Liu, T.
AU  - McCabe, T.
AU  - Morton, D. C.
AU  - Orland, E.
AU  - Ott, L.
AU  - Randerson, J. T.
AU  - Schmidt, C.
AU  - Soja, A. J.
AU  - Wales, P. A.
PY  - 2025
TI  - Variability in the diurnal cycle of fire radiative power for wildland fires in the Western United States
JA  - J. Geiphys. Res. Biogeosci.
ER  -

• Return to Publications Homepage