Publication Abstracts

Van Vuuren et al. 2025, submitted

Van Vuuren, D.P., B.C. O'Neill, C. Tebaldi, L.P. Chini, P. Friedlingstein, T. Hasegawa, K. Riahi, B.M. Sanderson, B. Govindasamy, N. Bauer, V. Eyring, C.M.N. Fall, K. Frieler, M.J. Gidden, L.K. Gohar, A.D. Jones, A. King, R. Knutti, E. Kriegler, P. Lawrence, C. Lennard, J. Lowe, C. Mathison, S. Mehmood, L.F. Prado, Q. Zhang, S.K. Rose, A.C. Ruane, C.-F. Schleussner, R. Seferian, J. Sillmann, C. Smith, A.A. Sörensson, S. Panickal, K. Tachiiri, N. Vaughan, S. Vishwanathan, T. Yokohata, and T. Ziehn, 2025: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7). Geophys. Model. Dev., submitted.

Scenarios represent a critical tool in climate change analysis, enabling the exploration of future evolution of the climate system, climate impacts, and the human system (including mitigation and adaptation actions). This paper describes the scenario framework for ScenarioMIP as part of CMIP7. The design process, initiated in June 2023, has involved various rounds of interaction with the research community and user groups at large. The proposal covers a set of scenarios exploring high levels of climate change (to explore high-end climate risks), medium levels of climate change (anchored to current policy action), and low levels of climate change (aligned with current international agreements). These scenarios follow very different trajectories in terms of emissions, with some likely to experience peaks and subsequent declines in greenhouse gas concentrations. An important innovation is that most scenarios are intended to be run, if possible, in emission-driven mode, providing a better representation of the earth system uncertainty space. The proposal also includes plans for long-term extensions (up to 2500 AD) to study slow climate change-related processes, and (ir)reversibility. This proposal forms the basis for further implementation of the framework in terms of the derivation of climate forcing pathways for use by earth system models and additional variants for adaptation and mitigation studies.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{va08400w,
  author={Van Vuuren, D. P. and O'Neill, B. C. and Tebaldi, C. and Chini, L. P. and Friedlingstein, P. and Hasegawa, T. and Riahi, K. and Sanderson, B. M. and Govindasamy, B. and Bauer, N. and Eyring, V. and Fall, C. M. N. and Frieler, K. and Gidden, M. J. and Gohar, L. K. and Jones, A. D. and King, A. and Knutti, R. and Kriegler, E. and Lawrence, P. and Lennard, C. and Lowe, J. and Mathison, C. and Mehmood, S. and Prado, L. F. and Zhang, Q. and Rose, S. K. and Ruane, A. C. and Schleussner, C.-F. and Seferian, R. and Sillmann, J. and Smith, C. and Sörensson, A. A. and Panickal, S. and Tachiiri, K. and Vaughan, N. and Vishwanathan, S. and Yokohata, T. and Ziehn, T.},
  title={The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)},
  year={2025},
  journal={Geophys. Model. Dev.},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - UNPB
ID  - va08400w
AU  - Van Vuuren, D. P.
AU  - O'Neill, B. C.
AU  - Tebaldi, C.
AU  - Chini, L. P.
AU  - Friedlingstein, P.
AU  - Hasegawa, T.
AU  - Riahi, K.
AU  - Sanderson, B. M.
AU  - Govindasamy, B.
AU  - Bauer, N.
AU  - Eyring, V.
AU  - Fall, C. M. N.
AU  - Frieler, K.
AU  - Gidden, M. J.
AU  - Gohar, L. K.
AU  - Jones, A. D.
AU  - King, A.
AU  - Knutti, R.
AU  - Kriegler, E.
AU  - Lawrence, P.
AU  - Lennard, C.
AU  - Lowe, J.
AU  - Mathison, C.
AU  - Mehmood, S.
AU  - Prado, L. F.
AU  - Zhang, Q.
AU  - Rose, S. K.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Schleussner, C.-F.
AU  - Seferian, R.
AU  - Sillmann, J.
AU  - Smith, C.
AU  - Sörensson, A. A.
AU  - Panickal, S.
AU  - Tachiiri, K.
AU  - Vaughan, N.
AU  - Vishwanathan, S.
AU  - Yokohata, T.
AU  - Ziehn, T.
PY  - 2025
TI  - The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)
JA  - Geophys. Model. Dev.
ER  -

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