Publication Abstracts
Sinha et al. 2026
Sinha, A., J. Cheng, H. Li, M. Tanoue, , H. Zhang, L. Tan, H. Cheng, and K. Yoshimura, 2026: ENSO modulated upstream convection as the primary control on interannual δ18O variability in East Asia. NPJ Clim. Atmos. Science, 9, 64, doi:10.1038/s41612-026-01333-8.
The mechanisms driving oxygen isotope variations in East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation (δ18Op) and their proxy archives remain controversial. Here, we use IsoGSM3 — an isotope-enabled climate model with moisture-tagging capability and rigorously validated against observations, to show that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary mode of interannual δ18Op variability across East Asia. ENSO's imprint arises primarily through its modulation of upstream deep convection and rainout, altering the isotopic signature of moisture transported downstream into East Asia. It further strengthens the imprint of low-level monsoon circulation variability on δ18Op, producing larger-amplitude and more spatially extensive anomalies over the EASM domain. An additional pathway involves ENSO's influence on the subtropical westerly jet, with El Niño events accentuating its southward displacement during the late and post-monsoon seasons, leading to positive δ18Op anomalies over the EASM domain. Despite these coherent dynamical influences, the ENSO-driven leading mode of interannual δ18Op variability captures only ∼21% of the total variance, a signal that, though clearly discernible in the model and observations, can be potentially obscured in archives that integrate δ18Op over multiple years, making seasonal or annually resolved records essential for capturing its variability.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{si01600j,
author={Sinha, A. and Cheng, J. and Li, H. and Tanoue, M. and Bong, H. and Zhang, H. and Tan, L. and Cheng, H. and Yoshimura, K.},
title={ENSO modulated upstream convection as the primary control on interannual δ18O variability in East Asia},
year={2026},
journal={NPJ Clim. Atmos. Science},
volume={9},
pages={64},
doi={10.1038/s41612-026-01333-8},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - si01600j AU - Sinha, A. AU - Cheng, J. AU - Li, H. AU - Tanoue, M. AU - Bong, H. AU - Zhang, H. AU - Tan, L. AU - Cheng, H. AU - Yoshimura, K. PY - 2026 TI - ENSO modulated upstream convection as the primary control on interannual δ18O variability in East Asia JA - NPJ Clim. Atmos. Science VL - 9 SP - 64 DO - 10.1038/s41612-026-01333-8 ER -
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