Publication Abstracts
Ruane et al. 2016
, , S. Asseng, D. Camarrano, F. Ewert, P. Martre, K.J. Boote, P.J. Thorburn, P.K. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, D. Basso, P. Bertuzzi, C. Biernath, N. Brisson, A.J. Challinor, J. Doltra, S. Gayler, R. Goldberg, R.F. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L.A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R.C. Izaurralde, K.C. Kersebaum, S.N. Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O'Leary, J.E. Olesen, T.M. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, R.P. Rötter, M.A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C.O. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, M. Travasso, K. Waha, D. Wallach, J.W. White, and J. Wolf, 2016: Multi-wheat model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability. Environ. Model. Softw., 81, 86-101, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008.
We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{ru08200c,
author={Ruane, A. C. and Hudson, N. I. and Asseng, S. and Camarrano, D. and Ewert, F. and Martre, P. and Boote, K. J. and Thorburn, P. J. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Angulo, C. and Basso, D. and Bertuzzi, P. and Biernath, C. and Brisson, N. and Challinor, A. J. and Doltra, J. and Gayler, S. and Goldberg, R. and Grant, R. F. and Heng, L. and Hooker, J. and Hunt, L. A. and Ingwersen, J. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Kumar, S. N. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Osborne, T. M. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Ripoche, D. and Rötter, R. P. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Steduto, P. and Stöckle, C. O. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Travasso, M. and Waha, K. and Wallach, D. and White, J. W. and Wolf, J.},
title={Multi-wheat model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability},
year={2016},
journal={Environmental Modelling and Software},
volume={81},
pages={86--101},
doi={10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ru08200c AU - Ruane, A. C. AU - Hudson, N. I. AU - Asseng, S. AU - Camarrano, D. AU - Ewert, F. AU - Martre, P. AU - Boote, K. J. AU - Thorburn, P. J. AU - Aggarwal, P. K. AU - Angulo, C. AU - Basso, D. AU - Bertuzzi, P. AU - Biernath, C. AU - Brisson, N. AU - Challinor, A. J. AU - Doltra, J. AU - Gayler, S. AU - Goldberg, R. AU - Grant, R. F. AU - Heng, L. AU - Hooker, J. AU - Hunt, L. A. AU - Ingwersen, J. AU - Izaurralde, R. C. AU - Kersebaum, K. C. AU - Kumar, S. N. AU - Nendel, C. AU - O'Leary, G. AU - Olesen, J. E. AU - Osborne, T. M. AU - Palosuo, T. AU - Priesack, E. AU - Ripoche, D. AU - Rötter, R. P. AU - Semenov, M. A. AU - Shcherbak, I. AU - Steduto, P. AU - Stöckle, C. O. AU - Stratonovitch, P. AU - Streck, T. AU - Supit, I. AU - Travasso, M. AU - Waha, K. AU - Wallach, D. AU - White, J. W. AU - Wolf, J. PY - 2016 TI - Multi-wheat model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability JA - Environ. Model. Softw. JO - Environmental Modelling and Software VL - 81 SP - 86 EP - 101 DO - 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.008 ER -
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