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Publication Abstracts

Pirttioja et al. 2015

Pirttioja, N., T. Carter, S. Fronzek, M. Bindi, H. Hoffmann, T. Palosuo, M. Ruiz-Ramos, F. Tao, M. Acutis, S. Asseng, P. Baranowski, B. Basso, P. Bodin, S. Buis, D. Cammarano, P. Deligios, M.-F. Destain, B. Dumont, R. Ewert, R. Ferrise, L. François, T. Gaiser, P. Hlavinka, I. Jacquemin, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Kollas, J. Krzyszczak, I.J. Lorite, J. Minet, M.I. Minguez, M. Montesino, M. Moriondo, C. Müller, C. Nendel, I. Öztürk, A. Perego, A. Rodríguez, A.C. Ruane, F. Ruget, M. Sanna, M.A. Semenov, C. Slawinski, P. Stratonovitch, I. Supit, K. Waha, E. Wang, L. Wu, Z. Zhao, and R.P. Rötter, 2015: A crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces. Clim. Res., 65, 87-105, doi:10.3354/cr01322.

This study aims to explore the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) yields were constructed from a 26- member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect in Europe. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9C) and precipitation (-50 to +50) was tested by modifying values of 19812010 baseline daily weather, with CO₂ concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi- model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour may depart markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicate that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields are more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities are mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminish under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability, which together may assist in pinpointing those processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects that require refinement in future model development.

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@article{pi07000h,
  author={Pirttioja, N. and Carter, T. and Fronzek, S. and Bindi, M. and Hoffmann, H. and Palosuo, T. and Ruiz-Ramos, M. and Tao, F. and Acutis, M. and Asseng, S. and Baranowski, P. and Basso, B. and Bodin, P. and Buis, S. and Cammarano, D. and Deligios, P. and Destain, M.-F. and Dumont, B. and Ewert, R. and Ferrise, R. and François, L. and Gaiser, T. and Hlavinka, P. and Jacquemin, I. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Kollas, C. and Krzyszczak, J. and Lorite, I. J. and Minet, J. and Minguez, M. I. and Montesino, M. and Moriondo, M. and Müller, C. and Nendel, C. and Öztürk, I. and Perego, A. and Rodríguez, A. and Ruane, A. C. and Ruget, F. and Sanna, M. and Semenov, M. A. and Slawinski, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Supit, I. and Waha, K. and Wang, E. and Wu, L. and Zhao, Z. and Rötter, R. P.},
  title={A crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces},
  year={2015},
  journal={Climate Research},
  volume={65},
  pages={87--105},
  doi={10.3354/cr01322},
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - pi07000h
AU  - Pirttioja, N.
AU  - Carter, T.
AU  - Fronzek, S.
AU  - Bindi, M.
AU  - Hoffmann, H.
AU  - Palosuo, T.
AU  - Ruiz-Ramos, M.
AU  - Tao, F.
AU  - Acutis, M.
AU  - Asseng, S.
AU  - Baranowski, P.
AU  - Basso, B.
AU  - Bodin, P.
AU  - Buis, S.
AU  - Cammarano, D.
AU  - Deligios, P.
AU  - Destain, M.-F.
AU  - Dumont, B.
AU  - Ewert, R.
AU  - Ferrise, R.
AU  - François, L.
AU  - Gaiser, T.
AU  - Hlavinka, P.
AU  - Jacquemin, I.
AU  - Kersebaum, K. C.
AU  - Kollas, C.
AU  - Krzyszczak, J.
AU  - Lorite, I. J.
AU  - Minet, J.
AU  - Minguez, M. I.
AU  - Montesino, M.
AU  - Moriondo, M.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Nendel, C.
AU  - Öztürk, I.
AU  - Perego, A.
AU  - Rodríguez, A.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Ruget, F.
AU  - Sanna, M.
AU  - Semenov, M. A.
AU  - Slawinski, C.
AU  - Stratonovitch, P.
AU  - Supit, I.
AU  - Waha, K.
AU  - Wang, E.
AU  - Wu, L.
AU  - Zhao, Z.
AU  - Rötter, R. P.
PY  - 2015
TI  - A crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces
JA  - Clim. Res.
JO  - Climate Research
VL  - 65
SP  - 87
EP  - 105
DO  - 10.3354/cr01322
ER  -

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