Publication Abstracts

Phillips et al. 2025, in press

Phillips, M., A.C. Ruane, D. Rind, M. De Mel, N. Bood, A. Romanou, J.I. Benhallam, and C. Rosenzweig, 2025: Probabilistic and threshold-based marine heat indicators show different signatures of near-perpetual heat emergence around Mesoamerican Reef under climate change. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., in press, doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0054.1.

We analyze a combination of probabilistic (pMHW; based on comparison with climatology) and fixed threshold-based (DHW; based on accumulated heat) marine heatwave metrics for the Mesoamerican and Caribbean region to characterize projected coral reef system risks. We use 10 Earth System models (ESMs) bias-adjusted using satellite-derived observations and future projections under intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios. Climate change causes an increase in marine heat across all seasons with events intensifying and increasingly combining into prolonged events. We calculate a time of emergence (ToE) by noting the projected date in which the typical projected year's marine heat is more extreme than the mean most extreme year in the 1985-2014 baseline. ToE for pMHW events is 2027 for the intermediate and 2028 for the very high scenario, and ToE for maximum DHW conditions is 2037 and 2034, respectively. Many regions exhibit pMHW events commonly lasting the entire year, notably beginning in the 2060s under the very high scenario and in the 2090s under the intermediate scenario. DHW projections indicate that events once considered rare would become nearly perpetual in the summertime and expand beyond current seasonal constraints across a broad region by 2040 in the very high emissions scenario and by 2050 under the intermediate scenario. Characteristics of change for each type of indicator across a range of climate models provide unique insight into the urgency of potential adaptation and risk management strategies as the Mesoamerican Reef enters a new era of marine heat.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{ph02100m,
  author={Phillips, M. and Ruane, A. C. and Rind, D. and De Mel, M. and Bood, N. and Romanou, A. and Benhallam, J. I. and Rosenzweig, C.},
  title={Probabilistic and threshold-based marine heat indicators show different signatures of near-perpetual heat emergence around Mesoamerican Reef under climate change},
  year={2025},
  journal={Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
  doi={10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0054.1},
  note={Manuscript accepted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - INPR
ID  - ph02100m
AU  - Phillips, M.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Rind, D.
AU  - De Mel, M.
AU  - Bood, N.
AU  - Romanou, A.
AU  - Benhallam, J. I.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
PY  - 2025
TI  - Probabilistic and threshold-based marine heat indicators show different signatures of near-perpetual heat emergence around Mesoamerican Reef under climate change
JA  - J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol.
JO  - Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
DO  - 10.1175/JAMC-D-24-0054.1
ER  -

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