Publication Abstracts

Phillips et al. 2023, submitted

Phillips, M., A.C. Ruane, M. De Mel, N. Bood, A. Romanou, D. Rind, J.I. Benhallam, and C. Rosenzweig, 2023: Probabilistic and threshold-based marine heat indicators show different signatures of near-perpetual heat emergence around Mesoamerican Reef under climate change. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., submitted.

We analyze a combination of probabilistic and threshold-based marine heatwave (MHW) metrics for the Mesoamerican and Caribbean region to characterize projected coral reef system risks. We use 10 bias-adjusted earth system models (ESMs) using satellite-derived observations, then look to future projections under an intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenario. The probabilistic marine heatwave (pMHW) indicator tells us how anomalous a heat event is compared to the historical climatology for that day of the year, while the threshold-based degree heating week (DHW) indicator indicates prolonged warm season heat hazards by accumulating the exceedance of temperatures above a raw threshold derived from coral bleaching data. Climate change causes an increase in pMHW intensity across all seasons. Many regions exhibit pMHW events commonly lasting the entire year, notably beginning in the 2060s under SSP5-8.5 and in the 2090s under SSP2-4.5, as indicated by 70% of the models. DHW projections point to a substantial increase in the period of each year under hazardous conditions, indicating that events once considered rare would become nearly perpetual in the summertime and expand across more of the seasonal cycle across a broad region by 2040 in SSP5-8.5 and by 2050 under SSP2-4.5. By comparing the average year's peak DHW to the 1985-2014 baseline maximum DHW, we calculate a time of emergence (ToE) for summertime MHW extremes in 2039 for SSP5-8.5 and 2048 for SSP2-4.5. Characteristics of change for each type of indicator provide unique insight into potential adaptation and risk management strategies.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{ph02100m,
  author={Phillips, M. and Ruane, A. C. and De Mel, M. and Bood, N. and Romanou, A. and Rind, D. and Benhallam, J. I. and Rosenzweig, C.},
  title={Probabilistic and threshold-based marine heat indicators show different signatures of near-perpetual heat emergence around Mesoamerican Reef under climate change},
  year={2023},
  journal={Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - UNPB
ID  - ph02100m
AU  - Phillips, M.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - De Mel, M.
AU  - Bood, N.
AU  - Romanou, A.
AU  - Rind, D.
AU  - Benhallam, J. I.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
PY  - 2023
TI  - Probabilistic and threshold-based marine heat indicators show different signatures of near-perpetual heat emergence around Mesoamerican Reef under climate change
JA  - J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol.
JO  - Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
ER  -

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