Publication Abstracts

Parry et al. 2001

Parry, M., N. Arnell, T. McMichael, R. Nicholls, P. Martens, S. Kovats, M. Livermore, C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, and G. Fischer, 2001: Viewpoint: Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets. Glob. Environ. Change, 11, 181-183, doi:10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5.

Agreements to mitigate climate change have been hampered by several things, not least their cost. But the cost might well be more acceptable if we had a clear picture of what damages would be avoided by different levels of emissions reductions, in other words, a clear idea of the pay off. The problem is that we do not. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published this year lists a wide range of potential impacts but has difficulty in discriminating between those that are critical in their nature and magnitude from those that are less important. Yet, the identification of critical impacts (e.g. ones that should be avoided at any reasonable cost) is obviously a key to addressing targets for mitigating climate change. Indeed, a central objective of the UN Framework Objective on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is to avoid "dangerous levels" of climate change that could threaten food security, ecosystems and sustainable development (areas of risk that are specifically mentioned in UNFCCC Article 2).

For several years, we have been researching impacts in key areas of risk: hunger, water shortage, exposure to malaria transmission, and coastal flooding, as part of a global fast-track assessment. The results of our work have been reported widely and form a significant part of the IPCC's assessment of likely impacts. But they are scattered through different parts of the IPCC report and other literature and, before now, we have not brought them together. For this review, we have graphed our estimates of effects as a single measure: the additional millions of people who could be placed at risk as a result of different amounts of global warming.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{pa06200v,
  author={Parry, M. and Arnell, N. and McMichael, T. and Nicholls, R. and Martens, P. and Kovats, S. and Livermore, M. and Rosenzweig, C. and Iglesias, A. and Fischer, G.},
  title={Viewpoint: Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets},
  year={2001},
  journal={Global Environmental Change},
  volume={11},
  pages={181--183},
  doi={10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - pa06200v
AU  - Parry, M.
AU  - Arnell, N.
AU  - McMichael, T.
AU  - Nicholls, R.
AU  - Martens, P.
AU  - Kovats, S.
AU  - Livermore, M.
AU  - Rosenzweig, C.
AU  - Iglesias, A.
AU  - Fischer, G.
PY  - 2001
TI  - Viewpoint: Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets
JA  - Glob. Environ. Change
JO  - Global Environmental Change
VL  - 11
SP  - 181
EP  - 183
DO  - 10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00011-5
ER  -

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