Publication Abstracts

Orlov et al. 2024

Orlov, A., J. Jägermeyr, C. Müller, A.S. Daloz, F. Zabel, S. Minoli, W. Liu, T.-S. Lin, A.K. Jain, C. Folberth, M. Okada, B. Poschlod, A. Smerald, J.M. Schneider, and J. Sillmann, 2024: Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario. One Earth, 7, no. 7, 1250-1265, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012.

Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops — maize, soybean, wheat, and rice — for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO2 fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{or01300f,
  author={Orlov, A. and Jägermeyr, J. and Müller, C. and Daloz, A. S. and Zabel, F. and Minoli, S. and Liu, W. and Lin, T.-S. and Jain, A. K. and Folberth, C. and Okada, M. and Poschlod, B. and Smerald, A. and Schneider, J. M. and Sillmann, J.},
  title={Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario},
  year={2024},
  journal={One Earth},
  volume={7},
  number={7},
  pages={1250--1265},
  doi={10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - or01300f
AU  - Orlov, A.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Daloz, A. S.
AU  - Zabel, F.
AU  - Minoli, S.
AU  - Liu, W.
AU  - Lin, T.-S.
AU  - Jain, A. K.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Okada, M.
AU  - Poschlod, B.
AU  - Smerald, A.
AU  - Schneider, J. M.
AU  - Sillmann, J.
PY  - 2024
TI  - Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario
JA  - One Earth
JO  - One Earth
VL  - 7
IS  - 7
SP  - 1250
EP  - 1265
DO  - 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012
ER  -

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