Publication Abstracts
Marvel et al. 2018
, R. Pincus, , and , 2018: Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, no. 3, 1595-1601, doi:10.1002/2017GL076468.
An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedbacks in the far future. Here, we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long term sensitivity.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{ma06310g,
author={Marvel, K. D. and Pincus, R. and Schmidt, G. A. and Miller, R. L.},
title={Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations},
year={2018},
journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
volume={45},
number={3},
pages={1595--1601},
doi={10.1002/2017GL076468},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ma06310g AU - Marvel, K. D. AU - Pincus, R. AU - Schmidt, G. A. AU - Miller, R. L. PY - 2018 TI - Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations JA - Geophys. Res. Lett. JO - Geophysical Research Letters VL - 45 IS - 3 SP - 1595 EP - 1601 DO - 10.1002/2017GL076468 ER -
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