Publication Abstracts

Li et al. 2026

Li, F., S.A. Strode, P.R. Colarco, Q. Liang, L.D. Oman, C. Orbe, E.L. Fleming, and A.M. Molod, 2026: Evaluating the coupled GEOS-AOGCM for climate research: Response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 forcing. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 131, no. 7, e2025JD044986, doi:10.1029/2025JD044986.

We evaluate the climate response of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) to idealized quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. A pre-industrial simulation and an abrupt 4×CO2 simulation are conducted with the GEOS AOGCM following the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) approach. The 4×CO2 run shows expected tropospheric and stratospheric climate response features, including Arctic amplification, intensification of the hydrologic cycle, Hadley Cell expansion, a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere jet stream, acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and a weaker Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. At the ocean surface, we see a complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice in July-December, and in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a poleward shift of the surface wind stress that drives the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation poleward. In the ocean, there is enhanced heat content but reduced heat export to the high northern latitudes coincident with a slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) of the GEOS AOGCM is estimated to be 2.55 K, in the lowest quartile of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ranges. The low ECS is due to a strong negative feedback and a weak effective radiative forcing.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{li09510d,
  author={Li, F. and Strode, S. A. and Colarco, P. R. and Liang, Q. and Oman, L. D. and Orbe, C. and Fleming, E. L. and Molod, A. M.},
  title={Evaluating the coupled GEOS-AOGCM for climate research: Response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 forcing},
  year={2026},
  journal={Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
  volume={131},
  number={7},
  pages={e2025JD044986},
  doi={10.1029/2025JD044986},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - li09510d
AU  - Li, F.
AU  - Strode, S. A.
AU  - Colarco, P. R.
AU  - Liang, Q.
AU  - Oman, L. D.
AU  - Orbe, C.
AU  - Fleming, E. L.
AU  - Molod, A. M.
PY  - 2026
TI  - Evaluating the coupled GEOS-AOGCM for climate research: Response to an abrupt quadrupling of CO2 forcing
JA  - J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.
JO  - Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
VL  - 131
IS  - 7
SP  - e2025JD044986
DO  - 10.1029/2025JD044986
ER  -

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