National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Publication Abstracts

Liu et al. 2019

Liu, B., P. Martre, F. Ewert, J.R. Porter, A.J. Challinor, C. Müller, A.C. Ruane, K. Waha, P.J. Thorburn, P.K. Aggarwal, M. Ahmed, J. Balkovič, B. Basso, C. Biernath, M. Bindi, D. Cammarano, G. De Sanctis, B. Dumont, M. Espadafor, E. Eyshi Rezaei, R. Ferrise, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, Y. Gao, H. Horan, G. Hoogenboom, R.C. Izaurralde, C.D. Jones, B.T. Kassie, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Klein, A.-K. Koehler, A. Maiorano, S. Minoli, M. Montesino San Martine, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G.J. O'Leary, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, R.P. Rötter, M.A. Semenov, C.O. Stöckle, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Van der Velde, D. Wallach, E. Wang, H. Webber, J. Wolf, L. Xiao, Z. Zhang, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu, and S. Asseng, 2019: Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming. Glob. Change Biol., 25, no. 4, 1428-1444, doi:10.1111/gcb.14542.

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5°C and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5 °C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0 °C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall and global atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer — India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production are therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

• Go to journal webpage

Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]

@article{li03900p,
  author={Liu, B. and Martre, P. and Ewert, F. and Porter, J. R. and Challinor, A. J. and Müller, C. and Ruane, A. C. and Waha, K. and Thorburn, P. J. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Ahmed, M. and Balkovič, J. and Basso, B. and Biernath, C. and Bindi, M. and Cammarano, D. and De Sanctis, G. and Dumont, B. and Espadafor, M. and Eyshi Rezaei, E. and Ferrise, R. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Gao, Y. and Horan, H. and Hoogenboom, G. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jones, C. D. and Kassie, B. T. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Klein, C. and Koehler, A.-K. and Maiorano, A. and Minoli, S. and Montesino San Martine, M. and Naresh Kumar, S. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. J. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Ripoche, D. and Rötter, R. P. and Semenov, M. A. and Stöckle, C. O. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Van der Velde, M. and Wallach, D. and Wang, E. and Webber, H. and Wolf, J. and Xiao, L. and Zhang, Z. and Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y. and Asseng, S.},
  title={Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming},
  year={2019},
  journal={Global Change Biology},
  volume={25},
  number={4},
  pages={1428--1444},
  doi={10.1111/gcb.14542},
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - li03900p
AU  - Liu, B.
AU  - Martre, P.
AU  - Ewert, F.
AU  - Porter, J. R.
AU  - Challinor, A. J.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Waha, K.
AU  - Thorburn, P. J.
AU  - Aggarwal, P. K.
AU  - Ahmed, M.
AU  - Balkovič, J.
AU  - Basso, B.
AU  - Biernath, C.
AU  - Bindi, M.
AU  - Cammarano, D.
AU  - De Sanctis, G.
AU  - Dumont, B.
AU  - Espadafor, M.
AU  - Eyshi Rezaei, E.
AU  - Ferrise, R.
AU  - Garcia-Vila, M.
AU  - Gayler, S.
AU  - Gao, Y.
AU  - Horan, H.
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.
AU  - Izaurralde, R. C.
AU  - Jones, C. D.
AU  - Kassie, B. T.
AU  - Kersebaum, K. C.
AU  - Klein, C.
AU  - Koehler, A.-K.
AU  - Maiorano, A.
AU  - Minoli, S.
AU  - Montesino San Martine, M.
AU  - Naresh Kumar, S.
AU  - Nendel, C.
AU  - O'Leary, G. J.
AU  - Palosuo, T.
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Ripoche, D.
AU  - Rötter, R. P.
AU  - Semenov, M. A.
AU  - Stöckle, C. O.
AU  - Streck, T.
AU  - Supit, I.
AU  - Tao, F.
AU  - Van der Velde, M.
AU  - Wallach, D.
AU  - Wang, E.
AU  - Webber, H.
AU  - Wolf, J.
AU  - Xiao, L.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Zhao, Z.
AU  - Zhu, Y.
AU  - Asseng, S.
PY  - 2019
TI  - Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming
JA  - Glob. Change Biol.
JO  - Global Change Biology
VL  - 25
IS  - 4
SP  - 1428
EP  - 1444
DO  - 10.1111/gcb.14542
ER  -

• Return to 2019 Publications

• Return to Publications Homepage