Publication Abstracts

Juliano et al. 2026, submitted

Juliano, T.W., F. Tornow, A.M. Fridlind, A.S. Ackerman, G.S. Elsaesser, B. Geerts, C.P. Lackner, D. Painemal, I. Silber, M. Ovchinnikov, G. Svensson, M. Tjernström, P. Wu, A. Baró Pérez, P. Bogenschutz, D. Chechin, K.K. Chandrakar, J. Chylik, A. Debolskiy, R. Fadeev, A. Gupta, L. Ickes, M. Karalis, M. Köhler, B. Kosović, P. Kuma, W. Li, E. Mortikov, H. Morrison, R.A.J. Neggers, A. Possner, T. Raatikainen, S. Romakkaniemi, N. Schnierstein, S. Shima, N. Silin, M. Tolstykh, L. Xue, M. Zhang, and X. Zheng, 2026: The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP), Part I: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings. Atmos. Chem. Phys, submitted.

Models are universally challenged to accurately predict the coupled microphysical, turbulent and radiative processes within widespread, long-lived marine cold-air outbreak (CAO) cloud fields, which leads to biases and uncertainties in atmospheric predictions over all time scales. Here we assemble a suite of ground-based and satellite measurements to initialize and constrain large-eddy simulations (LES) of cloud field evolution with distance downwind from the marginal ice zone during a strong, highly supercooled and convective CAO observed during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE). Detailed LES results are compared with large-scale models run in single-column model (SCM) mode, providing an observation-constrained framework for large-scale model evaluation and future improvements. All models reproduce rapid cloud formation off the ice edge, and a monotonic ascent of downwind cloud-top heights that is well correlated with time-integrated surface heat fluxes. LES generally reproduce domain-mean observational targets using a modest test domain (25 x 25 km2), and a larger domain (125×125 km2) enables better reproducing the observed growth of convective cell sizes. In realistic mixed-phase LES compared with liquid-only simulations, ice processes lead to thinner, broken cloud decks and substantially reduced cloud radiative effects on top-of-atmosphere longwave fluxes. By contrast, mixed-phase SCM simulations generally underpredict the impact of ice on radiative fluxes, primarily owing to insufficient reduction of cloud cover. Results indicate that cellular cloud structure is qualitatively captured by LES, and thus LES could provide guidance to improvement of large-scale model physics schemes. Follow-on work will extend these results to larger domains, apply objective analysis of mesoscale structure, and include prognostic aerosol properties for droplet and heterogeneous ice formation.

Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]

BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{ju06000g,
  author={Juliano, T. W. and Tornow, F. and Fridlind, A. M. and Ackerman, A. S. and Elsaesser, G. S. and Geerts, B. and Lackner, C. P. and Painemal, D. and Silber, I. and Ovchinnikov, M. and Svensson, G. and Tjernström, M. and Wu, P. and Baró Pérez, A. and Bogenschutz, P. and Chechin, D. and Chandrakar, K. K. and Chylik, J. and Debolskiy, A. and Fadeev, R. and Gupta, A. and Ickes, L. and Karalis, M. and Köhler, M. and Kosović, B. and Kuma, P. and Li, W. and Mortikov, E. and Morrison, H. and Neggers, R. A. J. and Possner, A. and Raatikainen, T. and Romakkaniemi, S. and Schnierstein, N. and Shima, S. and Silin, N. and Tolstykh, M. and Xue, L. and Zhang, M. and Zheng, X.},
  title={The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP), Part I: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings},
  year={2026},
  journal={Atmos. Chem. Phys},
  note={Manuscript submitted for publication}
}

[ Close ]

RIS Citation

TY  - UNPB
ID  - ju06000g
AU  - Juliano, T. W.
AU  - Tornow, F.
AU  - Fridlind, A. M.
AU  - Ackerman, A. S.
AU  - Elsaesser, G. S.
AU  - Geerts, B.
AU  - Lackner, C. P.
AU  - Painemal, D.
AU  - Silber, I.
AU  - Ovchinnikov, M.
AU  - Svensson, G.
AU  - Tjernström, M.
AU  - Wu, P.
AU  - Baró Pérez, A.
AU  - Bogenschutz, P.
AU  - Chechin, D.
AU  - Chandrakar, K. K.
AU  - Chylik, J.
AU  - Debolskiy, A.
AU  - Fadeev, R.
AU  - Gupta, A.
AU  - Ickes, L.
AU  - Karalis, M.
AU  - Köhler, M.
AU  - Kosović, B.
AU  - Kuma, P.
AU  - Li, W.
AU  - Mortikov, E.
AU  - Morrison, H.
AU  - Neggers, R. A. J.
AU  - Possner, A.
AU  - Raatikainen, T.
AU  - Romakkaniemi, S.
AU  - Schnierstein, N.
AU  - Shima, S.
AU  - Silin, N.
AU  - Tolstykh, M.
AU  - Xue, L.
AU  - Zhang, M.
AU  - Zheng, X.
PY  - 2026
TI  - The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment model-observation intercomparison project (COMBLE-MIP), Part I: Model specification, observational constraints, and preliminary findings
JA  - Atmos. Chem. Phys
ER  -

[ Close ]

• Return to Publications Homepage