Publication Abstracts

Jeon et al. 2026, in press

Jeon, J.-G., R.J. Allen, S.-W. Yeh, C.-E. Park, L.J. Wilcox, B.H. Samset, S. Ahmadi, A.M.L. Ekman, M. Elling, L. Fraser-Leach, P. Griffiths, J. Keeble, T. Koshiro, P. Kushner, A. Lewinschal, M. MacRae, R. Makkonen, J. Merikanto, P. Nabat, L.S. Nazarenko, D. O'Donnell, N. Oshima, G. Persad, S. Rumbold, N. Swart, T. Takemura, K. Tsigaridis, K. von Salzen, and D.M. Westervelt, 2026: Regional aerosol emission reductions alter tropical circulation. Environ. Res. Clim., in press, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae9c63.

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are projected to decline rapidly in the near future as air quality regulations strengthen. Crucially, however, the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to these reductions remains a major source of uncertainty. Here, we use multi-model ensembles from Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) to provide a diagnostic assessment of tropical circulation changes in response to global and regional aerosol reductions during 2015-2050. We find that global aerosol reductions lead to a poleward expansion of the Northern Hemisphere tropical width by 0.10° ± 0.08°, a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation by 1.77±1.09 109 kg/s and a strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation by 2.53±1.30 109 kg/s. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) also shows a northward shift by 0.19° ± 0.10°. These meridional circulation changes consistently emerge across the regional experiments, with aerosol reductions over East Asia and North America+Europe contributing the most. Although the response of the zonal Pacific Walker circulation to global aerosol reductions is not statistically significant, models show a strengthening tendency that is significant under Africa+Middle East aerosol reductions. Notably, the ITCZ response to greenhouse gas forcing is weak and uncertain, whereas aerosol reductions produce a stronger and more robust response, even in the regional experiments. Our results suggest that both global and regional aerosol reduction significantly contribute to large-scale tropical circulation changes.

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BibTeX Citation

@unpublished{je05100p,
  author={Jeon, J.-G. and Allen, R. J. and Yeh, S.-W. and Park, C.-E. and Wilcox, L. J. and Samset, B. H. and Ahmadi, S. and Ekman, A. M. L. and Elling, M. and Fraser-Leach, L. and Griffiths, P. and Keeble, J. and Koshiro, T. and Kushner, P. and Lewinschal, A. and MacRae, M. and Makkonen, R. and Merikanto, J. and Nabat, P. and Nazarenko, L. S. and O'Donnell, D. and Oshima, N. and Persad, G. and Rumbold, S. and Swart, N. and Takemura, T. and Tsigaridis, K. and von Salzen, K. and Westervelt, D. M.},
  title={Regional aerosol emission reductions alter tropical circulation},
  year={2026},
  journal={Environ. Res. Clim.},
  doi={10.1088/2752-5295/ae9c63},
  note={Manuscript accepted for publication}
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - INPR
ID  - je05100p
AU  - Jeon, J.-G.
AU  - Allen, R. J.
AU  - Yeh, S.-W.
AU  - Park, C.-E.
AU  - Wilcox, L. J.
AU  - Samset, B. H.
AU  - Ahmadi, S.
AU  - Ekman, A. M. L.
AU  - Elling, M.
AU  - Fraser-Leach, L.
AU  - Griffiths, P.
AU  - Keeble, J.
AU  - Koshiro, T.
AU  - Kushner, P.
AU  - Lewinschal, A.
AU  - MacRae, M.
AU  - Makkonen, R.
AU  - Merikanto, J.
AU  - Nabat, P.
AU  - Nazarenko, L. S.
AU  - O'Donnell, D.
AU  - Oshima, N.
AU  - Persad, G.
AU  - Rumbold, S.
AU  - Swart, N.
AU  - Takemura, T.
AU  - Tsigaridis, K.
AU  - von Salzen, K.
AU  - Westervelt, D. M.
PY  - 2026
TI  - Regional aerosol emission reductions alter tropical circulation
JA  - Environ. Res. Clim.
DO  - 10.1088/2752-5295/ae9c63
ER  -

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