Publication Abstracts
Im et al. 2021
Im, U., , , P.L. Langen, J.P. French, R. Mahmood, T. Manu, K. von Salzen, D.C. Thomas, C.H. Whaley, Z. Klimont, H. Skov, and J. Brandt, 2021: Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, no. 13, 10413-10438, doi:10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021.
The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990-2014) and future (2015-2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases.
Surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO42-), have been significantly underestimated by more than 50%, with the smallest biases calculated for the nudged atmosphere-only simulations. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in simulating both surface concentrations of aerosols and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, fully-coupled simulations had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere only simulations without nudging.
Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO42- burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10%-60% following the reductions of 7%-78% in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030-2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol-radiation interactions (RFARI) of -0.39±0.01 W/m2, which is -0.08 W/m2 larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing (-0.32 W/m2), of which -0.24±0.01 W/m2 was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of -0.35 to -0.40 W/m2 for the same period, which is -0.01 to -0.06 W/m2 larger than the 1990-2010 mean forcing of -0.35 W/m2. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO42- forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for -0.24 to -0.26 W/m2 of the net RFARI in 2030-2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6°C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6°C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990-2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{im01000b,
author={Im, U. and Tsigaridis, K. and Faluvegi, G. and Langen, P. L. and French, J. P. and Mahmood, R. and Manu, T. and von Salzen, K. and Thomas, D. C. and Whaley, C. H. and Klimont, Z. and Skov, H. and Brandt, J.},
title={Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model},
year={2021},
journal={Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
volume={21},
number={13},
pages={10413--10438},
doi={10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - im01000b AU - Im, U. AU - Tsigaridis, K. AU - Faluvegi, G. AU - Langen, P. L. AU - French, J. P. AU - Mahmood, R. AU - Manu, T. AU - von Salzen, K. AU - Thomas, D. C. AU - Whaley, C. H. AU - Klimont, Z. AU - Skov, H. AU - Brandt, J. PY - 2021 TI - Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model JA - Atmos. Chem. Phys. JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics VL - 21 IS - 13 SP - 10413 EP - 10438 DO - 10.5194/acp-21-10413-2021 ER -
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