Publication Abstracts
Haywood et al. 2020
Haywood, A.M., J.C. Tindall, H.J. Dowsett, A.M. Dolan, K.M. Foley, S.J. Hunter, D.J. Hill, W.-L. Chan, A. Abe-Ouchi, C. Stepanek, G. Lohmann, D. Chandan, W.R. Peltier, N. Tan, C. Contoux, G. Ramstein, X. Li, Z. Zhang, C. Guo, K.H. Nisancioglu, Q. Zhang, Q. Li, Y. Kamae, , , B.L. Otto-Bliesner, R. Feng, E.C. Brady, A.S. von der Heydt, M.L.J. Baatsen, and D.J. Lunt, 2020: The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity. Clim. Past, 16, 2095-2123, doi:10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020.
The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2°C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2°C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7% (range: 2%-13%). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3°C over land and 2.8°C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 6°N and 6°S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67% greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47% obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6-4.8°C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{ha09910r,
author={Haywood, A. M. and Tindall, J. C. and Dowsett, H. J. and Dolan, A. M. and Foley, K. M. and Hunter, S. J. and Hill, D. J. and Chan, W.-L. and Abe-Ouchi, A. and Stepanek, C. and Lohmann, G. and Chandan, D. and Peltier, W. R. and Tan, N. and Contoux, C. and Ramstein, G. and Li, X. and Zhang, Z. and Guo, C. and Nisancioglu, K. H. and Zhang, Q. and Li, Q. and Kamae, Y. and Chandler, M. A. and Sohl, L. E. and Otto-Bliesner, B. L. and Feng, R. and Brady, E. C. and von der Heydt, A. S. and Baatsen, M. L. J. and Lunt, D. J.},
title={The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity},
year={2020},
journal={Climate of the Past},
volume={16},
pages={2095--2123},
doi={10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ha09910r AU - Haywood, A. M. AU - Tindall, J. C. AU - Dowsett, H. J. AU - Dolan, A. M. AU - Foley, K. M. AU - Hunter, S. J. AU - Hill, D. J. AU - Chan, W.-L. AU - Abe-Ouchi, A. AU - Stepanek, C. AU - Lohmann, G. AU - Chandan, D. AU - Peltier, W. R. AU - Tan, N. AU - Contoux, C. AU - Ramstein, G. AU - Li, X. AU - Zhang, Z. AU - Guo, C. AU - Nisancioglu, K. H. AU - Zhang, Q. AU - Li, Q. AU - Kamae, Y. AU - Chandler, M. A. AU - Sohl, L. E. AU - Otto-Bliesner, B. L. AU - Feng, R. AU - Brady, E. C. AU - von der Heydt, A. S. AU - Baatsen, M. L. J. AU - Lunt, D. J. PY - 2020 TI - The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity JA - Clim. Past JO - Climate of the Past VL - 16 SP - 2095 EP - 2123 DO - 10.5194/cp-16-2095-2020 ER -
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