National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Publication Abstracts

Hansen et al. 1989

Hansen, J., D. Rind, A. Del Genio, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, M. Prather, R. Ruedy, and T. Karl, 1989: Regional greenhouse climate effects. In Coping with Climatic Change: Proceedings of the Second North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change. J.C. Topping, Jr., Ed., The Climate Institute.

We discuss the impact of an increasing greenhouse effect on three aspects of regional climate: droughts, storms and temperature. A continuation of current growth rates of greenhouse gases causes an increase in the frequency and severity of droughts in our climate model simulations, with the greatest impacts in broad regions of the subtropics and middle latitudes. But the greenhouse effect enhances both ends of the hydrologic cycle in the model, that is, there is an increased frequency of extreme wet situations, as well as increased drought. Model results are shown to imply that increased greenhouse warming will lead to more intense thunderstorms, that is, deeper thunderstorms with greater rainfall. Emanuel has shown that the model results also imply that the greenhouse warming leads to more destructive tropical cyclones. We present updated records of observed temperatures and show that the observations and model results, averaged over the globe and over the United States, are generally consistent. Finally, we quantify recent greenhouse climate forcings, showing, for example, that cholorfluorocarbons have grown to be 25 percent of current increases of the greenhouse effect.

The impacts of simulated climate changes on droughts, storms and temperature provide no evidence that there will be regional "winters" if greenhouse gases continue to increase rapidly.

• A condensed version of this paper was published in 1991 in Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations and Observations.

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@inbook{ha05700m,
  author={Hansen, J. and Rind, D. and Del Genio, A. and Lacis, A. and Lebedeff, S. and Prather, M. and Ruedy, R. and Karl, T.},
  editor={Topping, Jr., J. C.},
  title={Regional greenhouse climate effects},
  booktitle={Coping with Climatic Change: Proceedings of the Second North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change},
  year={1989},
  publisher={The Climate Institute},
  address={Washington, D.C.},
}

TY  - CHAP
ID  - ha05700m
AU  - Hansen, J.
AU  - Rind, D.
AU  - Del Genio, A.
AU  - Lacis, A.
AU  - Lebedeff, S.
AU  - Prather, M.
AU  - Ruedy, R.
AU  - Karl, T.
ED  - Topping, J. C., Jr.
PY  - 1989
TI  - Regional greenhouse climate effects
BT  - Coping with Climatic Change: Proceedings of the Second North American Conference on Preparing for Climate Change
PB  - The Climate Institute
CY  - Washington, D.C.
ER  -

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