National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Publication Abstracts

Guarin et al. 2022

Guarin, J.R., P. Martre, F. Ewert, H. Webber, S. Dueri, D. Calderini, M. Reynolds, G. Molero, D. Miralles, G. Garcia, G. Slafer, F. Giunta, D. Noleto Luz Pequeno, T. Stella, M. Ahmed, P.D. Alderman, B. Basso, A.G. Berger, M. Bindi, G. Bracho Mujica, D. Cammarano, Y. Chen, B. Dumont, E. Eyshi Rezaei, E. Fereres, R. Ferrise, T. Gaiser, Y. Gao, M. Garcia-Vila, S. Gayler, Z. Hochman, G. Hoogenboom, L.A. Hunt, C. Kersebaum, C. Nendel, J. Olesen, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, J. Pullens, A. Rodriguez, R.P. Rötter, M. Ruiz-Ramos, M.A. Semenov, N. Senapati, S. Siebert, A.K. Srivastava, C.O. Stöckle, I. Supit, F. Tao, P.J. Thorburn, E. Wang, T.K.D. Weber, L. Xiao, Z. Zhang, C. Zhao, J. Zhao, Z. Zhao, Y. Zhu, and S. Asseng, 2022: Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, no. 12, 124045, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c.

Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1,050±145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.

• Go to journal webpage

Export citation: [ BibTeX ] [ RIS ]

@article{gu02200w,
  author={Guarin, J. R. and Martre, P. and Ewert, F. and Webber, H. and Dueri, S. and Calderini, D. and Reynolds, M. and Molero, G. and Miralles, D. and Garcia, G. and Slafer, G. and Giunta, F. and Noleto Luz Pequeno, D. and Stella, T. and Ahmed, M. and Alderman, P. D. and Basso, B. and Berger, A. G. and Bindi, M. and Bracho Mujica, G. and Cammarano, D. and Chen, Y. and Dumont, B. and Eyshi Rezaei, E. and Fereres, E. and Ferrise, R. and Gaiser, T. and Gao, Y. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Hochman, Z. and Hoogenboom, G. and Hunt, L. A. and Kersebaum, C. and Nendel, C. and Olesen, J. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Pullens, J. and Rodriguez, A. and Rötter, R. P. and Ruiz-Ramos, M. and Semenov, M. A. and Senapati, N. and Siebert, S. and Srivastava, A. K. and Stöckle, C. O. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Thorburn, P. J. and Wang, E. and Weber, T. K. D. and Xiao, L. and Zhang, Z. and Zhao, C. and Zhao, J. and Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y. and Asseng, S.},
  title={Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential},
  year={2022},
  journal={Environmental Research Letters},
  volume={17},
  number={12},
  pages={124045},
  doi={10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c},
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - gu02200w
AU  - Guarin, J. R.
AU  - Martre, P.
AU  - Ewert, F.
AU  - Webber, H.
AU  - Dueri, S.
AU  - Calderini, D.
AU  - Reynolds, M.
AU  - Molero, G.
AU  - Miralles, D.
AU  - Garcia, G.
AU  - Slafer, G.
AU  - Giunta, F.
AU  - Noleto Luz Pequeno, D.
AU  - Stella, T.
AU  - Ahmed, M.
AU  - Alderman, P. D.
AU  - Basso, B.
AU  - Berger, A. G.
AU  - Bindi, M.
AU  - Bracho Mujica, G.
AU  - Cammarano, D.
AU  - Chen, Y.
AU  - Dumont, B.
AU  - Eyshi Rezaei, E.
AU  - Fereres, E.
AU  - Ferrise, R.
AU  - Gaiser, T.
AU  - Gao, Y.
AU  - Garcia-Vila, M.
AU  - Gayler, S.
AU  - Hochman, Z.
AU  - Hoogenboom, G.
AU  - Hunt, L. A.
AU  - Kersebaum, C.
AU  - Nendel, C.
AU  - Olesen, J.
AU  - Palosuo, T.
AU  - Priesack, E.
AU  - Pullens, J.
AU  - Rodriguez, A.
AU  - Rötter, R. P.
AU  - Ruiz-Ramos, M.
AU  - Semenov, M. A.
AU  - Senapati, N.
AU  - Siebert, S.
AU  - Srivastava, A. K.
AU  - Stöckle, C. O.
AU  - Supit, I.
AU  - Tao, F.
AU  - Thorburn, P. J.
AU  - Wang, E.
AU  - Weber, T. K. D.
AU  - Xiao, L.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Zhao, C.
AU  - Zhao, J.
AU  - Zhao, Z.
AU  - Zhu, Y.
AU  - Asseng, S.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential
JA  - Environ. Res. Lett.
JO  - Environmental Research Letters
VL  - 17
IS  - 12
SP  - 124045
DO  - 10.1088/1748-9326/aca77c
ER  -

• Return to 2022 Publications

• Return to Publications Homepage