Publication Abstracts
Gorenstein et al. 2026
Gorenstein, I., I. Wainer, F.S.R. Pausata, L.F. Prado, P.L.S. Dias, , C.R. Tabor, and W.R. Peltier, 2026: The Atlantic Ocean's decadal variability in mid-Holocene simulations using Shannon's Entropy. Geosci. Model Dev., 19, no. 9, 3689-3707, doi:10.5194/gmd-19-3689-2026.
Quantifying climate variability in a way that is comparable across models, experiments, and observations remains challenging, particularly at decadal time scales where nonlinear dynamics dominate. Traditional variance-based metrics are sensitive to anomaly amplitude, mean-state biases, and units of measurement, limiting their robustness for inter-model analyses. Here, we introduce an information-theoretic framework that characterizes climate variability as trajectories in a discrete phase space and quantifies system organization using Shannon's entropy. Using four coupled models (EC-Earth, GISS, iCESM, and CCSM-Toronto), we apply our methodology to compare the models' tropical and South Atlantic decadal variability, analyzing their sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation under Pre-Industrial and mid-Holocene boundary conditions, including Green Sahara experiments, and compare the results with observational datasets. Mid-Holocene forcings lead to model-dependent entropy changes, indicating a reorganization of Atlantic decadal variability rather than a uniform response across models. Green Sahara boundary conditions reduced SST entropy in EC-Earth and GISS models, implying a more organized Atlantic system, while precipitation responses are more heterogeneous. Entropy values derived from principal-component-based phase spaces have shown a more consistent framework to compare numerical models varaibility with observational estimates than using the traditional regional SST boxes index-based phase space. These findings highlight the diverse representations of climate variability across models. As such, this framework enables robust comparisons of low-frequency climate variability across models, paleoclimate simulations, and observations, complementing traditional variance-based diagnostics.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{go06700y,
author={Gorenstein, I. and Wainer, I. and Pausata, F. S. R. and Prado, L. F. and Dias, P. L. S. and LeGrande, A. N. and Tabor, C. R. and Peltier, W. R.},
title={The Atlantic Ocean's decadal variability in mid-Holocene simulations using Shannon's Entropy},
year={2026},
journal={Geoscientific Model Development},
volume={19},
number={9},
pages={3689--3707},
doi={10.5194/gmd-19-3689-2026},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - go06700y AU - Gorenstein, I. AU - Wainer, I. AU - Pausata, F. S. R. AU - Prado, L. F. AU - Dias, P. L. S. AU - LeGrande, A. N. AU - Tabor, C. R. AU - Peltier, W. R. PY - 2026 TI - The Atlantic Ocean's decadal variability in mid-Holocene simulations using Shannon's Entropy JA - Geosci. Model Dev. JO - Geoscientific Model Development VL - 19 IS - 9 SP - 3689 EP - 3707 DO - 10.5194/gmd-19-3689-2026 ER -
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