Publication Abstracts
Gillett et al. 2021
Gillett, N.P., M. Kirchmeier-Young, A. Ribes, H. Shiogama, G.C. Hegerl, R. Knutti, G. Gastineau, J.G. John, L. Li,
, N. Rosenbloom, Ø. Seland, T. Wu, S. Yukimoto, and T. Ziehn, 2021: Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period. Nat. Clim. Change, 11, no. 3, 207-212, doi:10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9.Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases "well below 2° above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° above pre-industrial levels". Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3° of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010-2019 relative to 1850-1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1°. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9° and -0.7 to -0.1°, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{gi08100s, author={Gillett, N. P. and Kirchmeier-Young, M. and Ribes, A. and Shiogama, H. and Hegerl, G. C. and Knutti, R. and Gastineau, G. and John, J. G. and Li, L. and Nazarenko, L. and Rosenbloom, N. and Seland, Ø. and Wu, T. and Yukimoto, S. and Ziehn, T.}, title={Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period}, year={2021}, journal={Nature Climate Change}, volume={11}, number={3}, pages={207--212}, doi={10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9}, }
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - gi08100s AU - Gillett, N. P. AU - Kirchmeier-Young, M. AU - Ribes, A. AU - Shiogama, H. AU - Hegerl, G. C. AU - Knutti, R. AU - Gastineau, G. AU - John, J. G. AU - Li, L. AU - Nazarenko, L. AU - Rosenbloom, N. AU - Seland, Ø. AU - Wu, T. AU - Yukimoto, S. AU - Ziehn, T. PY - 2021 TI - Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period JA - Nat. Clim. Change JO - Nature Climate Change VL - 11 IS - 3 SP - 207 EP - 212 DO - 10.1038/s41558-020-00965-9 ER -
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