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Franke et al. 2022

Franke, J.A., C. Müller, S. Minoli, J. Elliott, C. Folberth, C. Gardner, T. Hank, R.C. Izaurralde, J. Jägermeyr, C. Jones, W. Liu, S. Olin, T.A.M. Pugh, A.C. Ruane, H. Stephens, F. Zabel, and E. Moyer, 2022: Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change. Glob. Change Biol., 28, no. 1, 167-181, doi:10.1111/gcb.15868.

Modern food production is spatially concentrated in global "breadbaskets". A major unresolved question is whether these peak production regions will shift poleward as the climate warms, allowing some recovery of potential climaterelated losses. While agricultural impacts studies to date have focused on currently cultivated land, the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment allows us to assess changes in both yields and the location of peak productivity regions under warming. We examine crop responses under projected end-of-century warming using 7 process-based models simulating 5 major crops (maize, rice, soybeans, and spring and winter wheat) with a variety of adaptation strategies. We find that in no-adaptation cases, when planting date and cultivar choices are held fixed, regions of peak production remain stationary and yield losses can be severe, since growing seasons contract strongly with warming. When adaptations in management practices are allowed (cultivars that retain growing season length under warming and modified planting dates), peak productivity zones shift poleward and yield losses are largely recovered. While most growing-zone shifts are ultimately limited by geography, breadbaskets studied here move poleward over 600 km on average by end of the century under RCP 8.5. These results suggest that agricultural impacts assessments can be strongly biased if restricted in spatial area or in the scope of adaptive behavior considered. Accurate evaluation of food security under climate change requires global modeling and careful treatment of adaptation strategies.

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@article{fr09300n,
  author={Franke, J. A. and Müller, C. and Minoli, S. and Elliott, J. and Folberth, C. and Gardner, C. and Hank, T. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jägermeyr, J. and Jones, C. and Liu, W. and Olin, S. and Pugh, T. A. M. and Ruane, A. C. and Stephens, H. and Zabel, F. and Moyer, E.},
  title={Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change},
  year={2022},
  journal={Global Change Biology},
  volume={28},
  number={1},
  pages={167--181},
  doi={10.1111/gcb.15868},
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - fr09300n
AU  - Franke, J. A.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Minoli, S.
AU  - Elliott, J.
AU  - Folberth, C.
AU  - Gardner, C.
AU  - Hank, T.
AU  - Izaurralde, R. C.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Jones, C.
AU  - Liu, W.
AU  - Olin, S.
AU  - Pugh, T. A. M.
AU  - Ruane, A. C.
AU  - Stephens, H.
AU  - Zabel, F.
AU  - Moyer, E.
PY  - 2022
TI  - Agricultural breadbaskets shift poleward given adaptive farmer behavior under climate change
JA  - Glob. Change Biol.
JO  - Global Change Biology
VL  - 28
IS  - 1
SP  - 167
EP  - 181
DO  - 10.1111/gcb.15868
ER  -

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