Publication Abstracts
Cook et al. 2025
, A.P. Williams, J.E. Smerdon, , and R. Seager, 2025: Megapluvials in Southwestern North America. AGU Adv., 6, no. 2, e2024AV001508, doi:10.1029/2024AV001508.
Droughts over the last century in Southwestern North America (SWNA) have had severe consequences for people and ecosystems across the region, most recently during the early 21st-century megadrought (2000-2022). The 20th century, however, was bracketed by two extended pluvials that also had significant impacts in the region. We use a 1,224 years (800-2023 CE) record of observed and reconstructed soil moisture, in concert with a paleoclimate reanalysis product, to place the 20th-century pluvials in a longer-term context and investigate the occurrence and dynamics of similar events in the Common Era. Analyses of the soil moisture reconstruction demonstrate that pluvials and megapluvials are as ubiquitous as droughts and megadroughts over the last millennium. The early (19s years; 1905-1923) and late (22 years; 1978-1999) 20th-century pluvials rank as the second and first wettest in the record, respectively, positioning these as events on par with the most extreme megadroughts. Pluvials show a strong association with tropical Pacific (warm) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the 20th century and over the prior millennium, though the role of the tropical Atlantic is much more uncertain and ambiguous. Using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach trained on the pre-industrial period (800?1849 CE), we find that the record setting late 20th-century megapluvial likely occurred as a consequence of anomalously strong Pacific sea surface temperature forcing. This work establishes pluvial and megapluvial events as intrinsic components of Common Era hydroclimate variability in SWNA, comparable in importance to droughts and megadroughts.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{co01510v,
author={Cook, B. I. and Williams, A. P. and Smerdon, J. E. and Marvel, K. and Seager, R.},
title={Megapluvials in Southwestern North America},
year={2025},
journal={AGU Advances},
volume={6},
number={2},
pages={e2024AV001508},
doi={10.1029/2024AV001508},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - co01510v AU - Cook, B. I. AU - Williams, A. P. AU - Smerdon, J. E. AU - Marvel, K. AU - Seager, R. PY - 2025 TI - Megapluvials in Southwestern North America JA - AGU Adv. JO - AGU Advances VL - 6 IS - 2 SP - e2024AV001508 DO - 10.1029/2024AV001508 ER -
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