Publication Abstracts

Cong et al. 2026

Cong, J., C. Zhao, S. Asseng, X. Wang, C. Müller, J. Jägermeyr, X. Tian, Z. Liu, J. Zhao, B. Gao, Z. Zhang, and X. Yang, 2026: Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production. One Earth, 9, no. 1, 101464, doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101464.

Climate change threatens global food security by reducing crop yields under rising temperatures. Accurately projecting the production of wheat, a crop supplying 20% of global calories, in a changing climate is critical for food security. Most projections, however, focus solely on how climate change affects yields in existing wheat-growing areas, failing to consider potential climate-driven shifts in wheat cultivation. This omission creates a key knowledge gap in understanding future production. Here, we use machine learning and crop simulations to jointly project future wheat area and yield. We find that a 2°C warming could expand suitable planting areas by 15.0%, offsetting yield losses and potentially increasing global production of spring and winter wheat by 29.0% and 12.5%, respectively. Our results show that accounting for dynamic cropland shifts is essential for accurate production projections and food security assessments. These insights inform more realistic climate adaptation and land-use planning policies.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{co00510u,
  author={Cong, J. and Zhao, C. and Asseng, S. and Wang, X. and Müller, C. and Jägermeyr, J. and Tian, X. and Liu, Z. and Zhao, J. and Gao, B. and Zhang, Z. and Yang, X.},
  title={Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production},
  year={2026},
  journal={One Earth},
  volume={9},
  number={1},
  pages={101464},
  doi={10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101464},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - co00510u
AU  - Cong, J.
AU  - Zhao, C.
AU  - Asseng, S.
AU  - Wang, X.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Tian, X.
AU  - Liu, Z.
AU  - Zhao, J.
AU  - Gao, B.
AU  - Zhang, Z.
AU  - Yang, X.
PY  - 2026
TI  - Potential expansion of wheat planting areas driven by climate warming offsets yield losses and enhances global production
JA  - One Earth
JO  - One Earth
VL  - 9
IS  - 1
SP  - 101464
DO  - 10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101464
ER  -

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