Publication Abstracts
Cesana and Arouf 2026
, and , 2026: A reconciled satellite record reveals a negative low cloud feedback over the past 46 years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 53, no. 13, e2026GL124158, doi:10.1029/2026GL124158.
Low-cloud feedback continues to dominate uncertainty in climate sensitivity, with no direct observational estimate to date. Here we provide the first such estimate by combining satellite and reanalysis datasets within a cloud-controlling factor (CCF) framework. The CCF method reproduces observed variability (r = 0.93) and enables reconstruction of low-cloud cover (LCC) anomalies back to 1979. Contrary to long-standing expectations, tropical LCC has increased by 0.18% per decade since 1979, primarily driven by stratocumulus clouds. This corresponds to a strongly negative low-cloud feedback (-0.79 W/m2/K) over the historical record, in contrast with a positive feedback from CMIP6 abrupt-4×CO2 projections. Our results provide observational evidence that historical warming has been counteracted by a robust negative low-cloud feedback. If this relationship persists under future warming, it would favor lower climate sensitivity than recent assessments. Counterintuitively, models that best capture observed LCC climatology and trends exhibit the strongest positive abrupt-4×CO2 feedback and highest climate sensitivity.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{ce01300f,
author={Cesana, G. V. and Arouf, A.},
title={A reconciled satellite record reveals a negative low cloud feedback over the past 46 years},
year={2026},
journal={Geophysical Research Letters},
volume={53},
number={13},
pages={e2026GL124158},
doi={10.1029/2026GL124158},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - ce01300f AU - Cesana, G. V. AU - Arouf, A. PY - 2026 TI - A reconciled satellite record reveals a negative low cloud feedback over the past 46 years JA - Geophys. Res. Lett. JO - Geophysical Research Letters VL - 53 IS - 13 SP - e2026GL124158 DO - 10.1029/2026GL124158 ER -
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