Publication Abstracts

Brovkin et al. 2025

Brovkin, V., B.M. Sanderson, N.G. Brizuela, T. Hajima, T. Ilyina, C.D. Jones, C. Koven, D. Lawrence, P. Lawrence, H. Li, S. Liddcoat, A. Romanou, R. Séférian, L.T. Sentman, A.L.S. Swann, J. Tjiputra, T. Ziehn, and A.J. Winkler, 2025: On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations. Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, no. 6, 2021-2034, doi:10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025.

Idealized experiments with coupled climate-carbon Earth system models (ESMs) provide a basis for understanding the response of the carbon cycle to external forcing and for quantifying climate-carbon feedbacks. Here, we analyze globally-averaged results from idealized esm-flat10 experiments and show that most models exhibit a quasi-linear relationship between cumulative carbon uptake on land and in the ocean during a period of constant fossil fuel emissions of 10 Pg C/yr. We hypothesize that this relationship does not depend on emission pathways. Further, as a simplification, we quantify the relationship between cumulative ocean carbon uptake and changes in ocean heat content using a linear approximation. In this way, changes in oceanic heat content and atmospheric CO2 concentration become interdependent variables, reducing the coupled temperature-CO2 system to just one differential equation. The equation can be solved analytically or numerically for the atmospheric CO2 concentration as a function of fossil fuel emissions. This approach leads to a simplified description of global carbon and climate dynamics, which could be used for applications beyond existing analytical frameworks.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{br08400w,
  author={Brovkin, V. and Sanderson, B. M. and Brizuela, N. G. and Hajima, T. and Ilyina, T. and Jones, C. D. and Koven, C. and Lawrence, D. and Lawrence, P. and Li, H. and Liddcoat, S. and Romanou, A. and Séférian, R. and Sentman, L. T. and Swann, A. L. S. and Tjiputra, J. and Ziehn, T. and Winkler, A. J.},
  title={On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations},
  year={2025},
  journal={Earth Syst. Dynam.},
  volume={16},
  number={6},
  pages={2021--2034},
  doi={10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - br08400w
AU  - Brovkin, V.
AU  - Sanderson, B. M.
AU  - Brizuela, N. G.
AU  - Hajima, T.
AU  - Ilyina, T.
AU  - Jones, C. D.
AU  - Koven, C.
AU  - Lawrence, D.
AU  - Lawrence, P.
AU  - Li, H.
AU  - Liddcoat, S.
AU  - Romanou, A.
AU  - Séférian, R.
AU  - Sentman, L. T.
AU  - Swann, A. L. S.
AU  - Tjiputra, J.
AU  - Ziehn, T.
AU  - Winkler, A. J.
PY  - 2025
TI  - On a simplified solution of climate-carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations
JA  - Earth Syst. Dynam.
VL  - 16
IS  - 6
SP  - 2021
EP  - 2034
DO  - 10.5194/esd-16-2021-2025
ER  -

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