Publication Abstracts

Bruno et al. 2026

Bruno, J.F., M.T. Burrows, S.C. Doney, T.L. Frölicher, I. Kubiszewski, J.P. Gibert, T.M. Lenton, M. Meredith, M.L. Pinsky, J.W.B. Rae, A. Romanou, D.A. Smale, and M. Zeff, 2026: Marine ecosystems in peril: Time to prepare for super El Niño. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 123, no. 37, e2623156123, doi:10.1073/pnas.2623156123.

A new El Niño has begun and is projected to develop later this year into one of the strongest on record. The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a cyclical climate phenomenon driven by complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. During the warm El Niño phase, surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific can rapidly increase by ∼5°C or more. Super El Niños are especially strong events in which the peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) exceeds 2°C. Whether anthropogenic climate change is directly influencing this amplitude remains an active area of research.

Rather than viewing the developing El Niño solely as an acute environmental disaster, we should also see it as a global stress test for marine ecosystems, management institutions, and scientific observing systems. As the ocean continues to warm, events like this will become increasingly important opportunities to evaluate adaptation strategies, improve forecasting, and better understand how marine ecosystems respond to climate extremes and approach ecological tipping points.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{br00500y,
  author={Bruno, J. F. and Burrows, M. T. and Doney, S. C. and Frölicher, T. L. and Kubiszewski, I. and Gibert, J. P. and Lenton, T. M. and Meredith, M. and Pinsky, M. L. and Rae, J. W. B. and Romanou, A. and Smale, D. A. and Zeff, M.},
  title={Marine ecosystems in peril: Time to prepare for super El Niño},
  year={2026},
  journal={Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume={123},
  number={37},
  pages={e2623156123},
  doi={10.1073/pnas.2623156123},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - br00500y
AU  - Bruno, J. F.
AU  - Burrows, M. T.
AU  - Doney, S. C.
AU  - Frölicher, T. L.
AU  - Kubiszewski, I.
AU  - Gibert, J. P.
AU  - Lenton, T. M.
AU  - Meredith, M.
AU  - Pinsky, M. L.
AU  - Rae, J. W. B.
AU  - Romanou, A.
AU  - Smale, D. A.
AU  - Zeff, M.
PY  - 2026
TI  - Marine ecosystems in peril: Time to prepare for super El Niño
JA  - Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
JO  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
VL  - 123
IS  - 37
SP  - e2623156123
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.2623156123
ER  -

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