Publication Abstracts
Bhandekar et al. 2026
Bhandekar, A., L.J. Wilcox, B.N. Lawrence, N.L. Abraham, F.M. O'Connor, B.H. Samset, R.J. Allen, S. Ahmadi, A.M.L. Ekman, M. Elling, L. Fraser-Leach, P. Griffiths, J. Keeble, T. Koshiro, P. Kushner, A. Lewinschal, M. MacRae, R. Makkonen, J. Merikanto, P. Nabat, , D. O'Donnell, N. Oshima, G. Persad, S. Rumbold, N. Swart, T. Takemura, , and D.M. Westervelt, 2026: South Asian monsoon response to regional aerosol emission reductions: Insights from RAMIP. Environ. Res. Clim., 5, no. 3, 035036, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ae7fad.
Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the Indian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP), we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence Indian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm/day) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm/day), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm/day over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the elevated heat pump, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol-monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land-sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.
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BibTeX Citation
@article{bh06000g,
author={Bhandekar, A. and Wilcox, L. J. and Lawrence, B. N. and Abraham, N. L. and O'Connor, F. M. and Samset, B. H. and Allen, R. J. and Ahmadi, S. and Ekman, A. M. L. and Elling, M. and Fraser-Leach, L. and Griffiths, P. and Keeble, J. and Koshiro, T. and Kushner, P. and Lewinschal, A. and MacRae, M. and Makkonen, R. and Merikanto, J. and Nabat, P. and Nazarenko, L. S. and O'Donnell, D. and Oshima, N. and Persad, G. and Rumbold, S. and Swart, N. and Takemura, T. and Tsigaridis, K. and Westervelt, D. M.},
title={South Asian monsoon response to regional aerosol emission reductions: Insights from RAMIP},
year={2026},
journal={Environ. Res. Clim.},
volume={5},
number={3},
pages={035036},
doi={10.1088/2752-5295/ae7fad},
}
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RIS Citation
TY - JOUR ID - bh06000g AU - Bhandekar, A. AU - Wilcox, L. J. AU - Lawrence, B. N. AU - Abraham, N. L. AU - O'Connor, F. M. AU - Samset, B. H. AU - Allen, R. J. AU - Ahmadi, S. AU - Ekman, A. M. L. AU - Elling, M. AU - Fraser-Leach, L. AU - Griffiths, P. AU - Keeble, J. AU - Koshiro, T. AU - Kushner, P. AU - Lewinschal, A. AU - MacRae, M. AU - Makkonen, R. AU - Merikanto, J. AU - Nabat, P. AU - Nazarenko, L. S. AU - O'Donnell, D. AU - Oshima, N. AU - Persad, G. AU - Rumbold, S. AU - Swart, N. AU - Takemura, T. AU - Tsigaridis, K. AU - Westervelt, D. M. PY - 2026 TI - South Asian monsoon response to regional aerosol emission reductions: Insights from RAMIP JA - Environ. Res. Clim. VL - 5 IS - 3 SP - 035036 DO - 10.1088/2752-5295/ae7fad ER -
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