Publication Abstracts

Basile et al. 2025

Basile, S., A. Crimmins, F. Lipschultz, K.E. Kunkel, K. Marvel, A. Terando, C. Tebaldi, D. Pierce, W. Su, L.R. Leung, and K. Hayhoe, 2025: Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future. Climatic Change, 178, no. 4, 84, doi:10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6.

Climate assessments consolidate our understanding of possible future climate conditions as represented by climate projections, which are largely based on the output of global climate models. Over the past 30 years, the scientific insights gained from climate projections have been refined through model structural improvements, emerging constraints on climate feedbacks, and increased computational efficiency. Within the same period, the process of assessing and evaluating information from climate projections has become more defined and targeted to inform users. As the size and audience of climate assessments has expanded, the framing, relevancy, and accessibility of projections has become increasingly important. This paper reviews the use of climate projections in national climate assessments (NCA) while highlighting challenges and opportunities that have been identified over time. Reflections and lessons learned address the continuous process to understand the broadening assessment audience and evolving user needs. Insights for future NCA development include (1) identifying benchmarks and standards for evaluating downscaled datasets, (2) expanding efforts to gather research gaps and user needs to inform how climate projections are presented in the assessment (3) providing practitioner guidance on the use, interpretation, and reporting of climate projections and uncertainty to better inform decision-making.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ba07800j,
  author={Basile, S. and Crimmins, A. and Lipschultz, F. and Kunkel, K. E. and Marvel, K. and Terando, A. and Tebaldi, C. and Pierce, D. and Su, W. and Leung, L. R. and Hayhoe, K.},
  title={Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future},
  year={2025},
  journal={Climatic Change},
  volume={178},
  number={4},
  pages={84},
  doi={10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ba07800j
AU  - Basile, S.
AU  - Crimmins, A.
AU  - Lipschultz, F.
AU  - Kunkel, K. E.
AU  - Marvel, K.
AU  - Terando, A.
AU  - Tebaldi, C.
AU  - Pierce, D.
AU  - Su, W.
AU  - Leung, L. R.
AU  - Hayhoe, K.
PY  - 2025
TI  - Projections of future climate for U.S. national assessments: past, present, future
JA  - Climatic Change
JO  - Climatic Change
VL  - 178
IS  - 4
SP  - 84
DO  - 10.1007/s10584-025-03888-6
ER  -

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