Publication Abstracts

Bajaj et al. 2025

Bajaj, K., Z. Mehrabi, T. Kastner, J. Jägermeyr, C. Müller, F. Schwarzmüller, T.W. Hertel, and N. Ramankutty, 2025: Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations. PLOS ONE, 20, no. 1, e0314722, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0314722.

The risk of national food supply disruptions is linked to both domestic production and food imports. But assessments of climate change risks for food systems typically focus on the impacts on domestic production, ignoring climate impacts in supplying regions. Here, we use global crop modeling data in combination with current trade flows to evaluate potential climate change impacts on national food supply, comparing impacts on domestic production alone (domestic production impacts) to impacts considering how climate change impacts production in all source regions (consumption impact). Under 2°C additional global mean warming over present day, our analysis highlights that climate impacts on national supply are aggravated for 53% high income and 56% upper medium income countries and mitigated for 60% low- and 71% low-medium income countries under consumption-based impacts compared to domestic impacts alone. We find that many countries are reliant on a few mega-exporters who mediate these climate impacts. Managing the risk of climate change for national food security requires a global perspective, considering not only how national production is affected, but also how climate change affects trading partners.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ba06800i,
  author={Bajaj, K. and Mehrabi, Z. and Kastner, T. and Jägermeyr, J. and Müller, C. and Schwarzmüller, F. and Hertel, T. W. and Ramankutty, N.},
  title={Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations},
  year={2025},
  journal={PLOS ONE},
  volume={20},
  number={1},
  pages={e0314722},
  doi={10.1371/journal.pone.0314722},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ba06800i
AU  - Bajaj, K.
AU  - Mehrabi, Z.
AU  - Kastner, T.
AU  - Jägermeyr, J.
AU  - Müller, C.
AU  - Schwarzmüller, F.
AU  - Hertel, T. W.
AU  - Ramankutty, N.
PY  - 2025
TI  - Current food trade helps mitigate future climate change impacts in lower-income nations
JA  - PLOS ONE
JO  - PLOS ONE
VL  - 20
IS  - 1
SP  - e0314722
DO  - 10.1371/journal.pone.0314722
ER  -

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