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Publication Abstracts

Anderson et al. 2024

Anderson, W., S. Shukla, J. Verdin, A. Hoell, C. Justice, B. Barker, K. Slinski, N. Lenssen, J. Lou, B.I. Cook, and A. McNally, 2024: Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure. Nat. Commun., 15, no. 1, 7262, doi:10.1038/s41467-024-51555-8.

Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in climate forecasting, we demonstrate that global preseason crop yield forecasts are not only possible but are skillful over considerable portions of cropland. Globally, maize and wheat forecasts are skillful at lead times of up to a year ahead of harvest for 15% and 30% of harvested areas, respectively. Forecasts are most skillful in Southeast Africa and Southeast Asia for maize and parts of South and Central Asia, Australia, and Southeast South America for wheat. Wheat forecasts, furthermore, remain skillful at lead times of over 18 months ahead of harvest in some locations. Our results demonstrate that the potential for preseason crop yield forecasts is greater than previously appreciated.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{an01300f,
  author={Anderson, W. and Shukla, S. and Verdin, J. and Hoell, A. and Justice, C. and Barker, B. and Slinski, K. and Lenssen, N. and Lou, J. and Cook, B. I. and McNally, A.},
  title={Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure},
  year={2024},
  journal={Nature Communication},
  volume={15},
  number={1},
  pages={7262},
  doi={10.1038/s41467-024-51555-8},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - an01300f
AU  - Anderson, W.
AU  - Shukla, S.
AU  - Verdin, J.
AU  - Hoell, A.
AU  - Justice, C.
AU  - Barker, B.
AU  - Slinski, K.
AU  - Lenssen, N.
AU  - Lou, J.
AU  - Cook, B. I.
AU  - McNally, A.
PY  - 2024
TI  - Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure
JA  - Nat. Commun.
JO  - Nature Communication
VL  - 15
IS  - 1
SP  - 7262
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-024-51555-8
ER  -

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