Publication Abstracts

Aerenson et al. 2025

Aerenson, T., D. McCoy, G. Elsaesser, J. Wu, J.M. Nugent, H. Brown, A. Mikkelsen, and M.D. Zelinka, 2025: Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate? Sci. Adv., 11, no. 50, eady3236, doi:10.1126/sciadv.ady3236.

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons. Errors in the energy balance of Earth system models can be traced to the time of day when they simulate clouds.

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BibTeX Citation

@article{ae02000c,
  author={Aerenson, T. and McCoy, D. and Elsaesser, G. and Wu, J. and Nugent, J. M. and Brown, H. and Mikkelsen, A. and Zelinka, M. D.},
  title={Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?},
  year={2025},
  journal={Science Advances},
  volume={11},
  number={50},
  pages={eady3236},
  doi={10.1126/sciadv.ady3236},
}

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RIS Citation

TY  - JOUR
ID  - ae02000c
AU  - Aerenson, T.
AU  - McCoy, D.
AU  - Elsaesser, G.
AU  - Wu, J.
AU  - Nugent, J. M.
AU  - Brown, H.
AU  - Mikkelsen, A.
AU  - Zelinka, M. D.
PY  - 2025
TI  - Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?
JA  - Sci. Adv.
JO  - Science Advances
VL  - 11
IS  - 50
SP  - eady3236
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.ady3236
ER  -

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