IRI@GISS Climate Forecasts

Scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies are working with researchers at the Columbia Climate School's Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), affiliated with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). They regularly post a series of climate forecast products. These include:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation Forecast

A monthly discussion of the status of El Niño, La Niña, and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), together with ENSO multi-model probabilistic forecasts for the next nine months. Updated on the 19th of each month.
+ Go to ENSO Forecast

Seasonal Climate Forecast

Global probabilistic outlook maps of seasonal precipitation and temperature for the next six months, together with a monthly discussion. The IRI seasonal forecasts are based on a re-calibration of model output from the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s North American Multi-Model Ensemble Project (NMME). They are expressed using tercile categories (below normal, near normal, above normal), as well as user-selectable thresholds (flexible format). Updated on the 15th of each month.
+ Go to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal Climate Forecast

Global probabilistic weekly and biweekly forecast maps for precipitation and temperature for the next four weeks. They aim to fill the gap between daily weather forecasts and seasonal forecasting.. The IRI subseasonal forecasts are based on a re-calibration of model output from three NOAA models (CFSv2, GEFSv12, and ESRL FIM HYCOM, each initialized on Wednesdays) from the Subseasonal Consortium Project (SubC). As for the Seasonal Forecasts, the IRI Subseasonal forecasts are expressed using tercile categories (below normal, near normal, above normal), as well as user-selectable thresholds (flexible format). This forecast is updated every Friday.
+ Go to Subseasonal Forecast

Monthly Climate Forecast Briefing

The ENSO and Seasonal Climate Forecasts are presented and discussed in a briefing, held in-person at GISS and on-line via Zoom on the third Wednesday of each month at 11 a.m. ET. Recordings of recent briefings can be found on Vimeo, while PowerPoint slide decks are archived at IRI. Pleaser contact one of the persons named below if you wish to virtually attend of one of the monthly briefings.

Contacts

Users interested in announcements about the forecasts can subscribe to one of the applicable IRI mailing lists.

Please address all queries about these forecasts to Dr. M. Azhar Ehsan (ENSO and Seasonal) or Dr. Andrew Robertson (Subseasonal).