Speaker: Kyle Mandli (NCAR)
Topic: Storm Surge Modeling for a Changing Coast: Computation, Uncertainty, and Climate Adaptation

Translating climate projections into local estimates of coastal flood risk requires models capable of resolving complex coastal hydrodynamics across large ensembles of uncertain future conditions. This talk describes the computational framework underlying modern storm surge simulation and presents applications at the intersection of climate science, probabilistic hazard assessment, and coastal adaptation planning. I will give a high-level overview of the finite volume methods and adaptive mesh refinement strategies that make high-resolution, ensemble-based storm surge modeling computationally tractable, and discuss how probabilistic hazard frameworks propagate uncertainty across storm scenarios, sea-level rise projections, and evolving storm climatology. Applications will include assessments of how extratropical and tropical cyclone flood return periods shift under climate change, a full pipeline connecting surge simulation to economic impact modeling and adaptation strategy evaluation, and ongoing work coupling storm surge models directly to dynamical weather and climate model output. I will also discuss active challenges at the boundary of current capability -- compound flooding, wave-current interaction, and coastal structure representation -- and the places where advances in climate modeling could most directly improve the fidelity and scope of coastal hazard assessments and adaptation planning.