Title: The Circulation Response to Volcanic Eruptions: Investigating with a Hierarchy of Models

Presenter:  Kevin DallaSanta

Abstract:
It has long been appreciated that volcanic eruptions cool the surface by reducing insolation. However, proxy data suggests that certain eruptions are also followed by warmer winters, associated with a strengthened stratospheric vortex and a poleward shift of the jet stream. Despite numerous modeling studies, the magnitude of this effect remains unclear, as does its mechanism. We address the problem with a novel hierarchy of idealized models. The results manifest a robust eddy-driven response, but imply an upper bound for the signal-to-noise ratio. Our findings are relevant for future modeling studies and for post-volcanic forecasting.