---- Timothy Hall -----

Tropical Cyclones, North-American Landfall, and Sea-Surface Temperature

Statistical modeling is used to reveal the sensitivity of
North-Atlantic tropical cyclone formation and North-American landfall
rates to changing basin-wide sea-surface temperature (SST).
Significantly more tropical cyclones form in warm years than cold,
corroborating a number of previous studies. However, the increase with
SST is not uniform. In warmer years the regions of intense formation
shift southward and eastward. This has implications for rates of
landfall on the North-American coast. Preliminary analysis shows that
landfall rates increase everywhere with SST, but some coastal regions
(Florida and the Gulf Coast) are more sensitive than other regions
(the US mid-Atlantic).