National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Special Seminar
Speaker: Chris Jones (UK Met Office/University of Bristol)
Title: The Zero Emissions Commitment: When will Global Warming stop?

This is a hybrid presentation, presented both in-person and on-line. Please consult with event host Kate Marvel for connection details if you wish to virtually attend.

Abstract:
There is a (mis)conception that our climate will continue to warm up even if we stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. But this is not true -- if we stop emitting, the world stops warming. Or at least approximately.

This old idea of committed warming, or "warming in the pipeline" was based on asking what would happen if we kept CO2 levels constant in the atmosphere. But this is the wrong question -- if we stop emitting CO2 then natural carbon sinks will remove it and CO2 levels drop. This means that we are not "committed" to ongoing warming after the point of zero emissions -- hence it is known as the "Zero Emissions Commitment" or ZEC. The model evidence that ZEC is close to zero has existed for a while, but in CMIP6 an intercomparison activity, ZECMIP, explored it in more detail and allowed IPCC AR6 to make a more formal assessment of the science.

More importantly, the warming we will see depends almost linearly on the amount we emit up to the point of zero emissions. This relationship between global warming and cumulative emissions is known as TCRE (the Transient Climate Response to cumulative emissions). This is an incredibly useful result, but quantitative uncertainty is large enough to hinder its use for policy making.

In this seminar I will explain the science behind these concepts, their implications for carbon budgets and climate policy, and explore the "what next" questions as we are still trying to understand the mechanisms behind ZEC and constrain uncertainty in TCRE.

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GISS Lunch Seminar
Speaker: Mariah Pope (Tomorrow.io)
Title: Weather, AI, and Industry: Data Science at Tomorrow.io

This is a hybrid presentation, presented both in-person and on-line. Please consult with event host Joseph Kelly for connection details if you wish to virtually attend.

Abstract:
Overview of the Tomorrow.io's work and what it is like to operate in the private sector studying weather and/or climate science. The talk will begin with an introduction to Tomorrow.io, a company working to improve weather forecasting through three integrated components: space-based observations from a constellation of satellites, AI-driven weather forecasting, and decision-focused delivery to customers. Next, the talk will provide context on the current state of weather prediction and how the "AI weather revolution" is reshaping the field. We will discuss how machine learning models are increasingly complementing, and in some cases challenging, traditional numerical weather prediction, and will share examples illustrating how AI-enabled approaches are improving forecast speed, scalability, and accessibility. We will also explore how these same developments are influencing climate modeling and climate-risk applications. Finally, Mariah will reflect on working at the public–private interface on weather and climate questions. This will include a discussion of her role at Tomorrow.io and how interdisciplinary teams spanning atmospheric science, engineering, machine learning, and operations within the private sector, government, and academia can collaborate to build and deploy forecasting systems in a rapidly evolving landscape.

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