Forcing Agents Underlying Climate Change: Page 7 of 11
Submitted Testimony: 5. Alternative Scenario: Air Pollution.
One of the two requirements for achieving the alternative scenario is to stop the growth of non-CO2 forcings. Principally, that means to halt, or even better reverse, the growth of black carbon (soot), tropospheric ozone (O3) and methane (CH4). These can loosely be described as air pollution, although in dilute amounts methane is not harmful to health. Black carbon, with adsorbed organic carbon, nitrates and sulfates, and tropospheric ozone are principal ingredients in air pollution.
Black carbon (soot). Black carbon aerosols, except in the extreme case of exhaust puffs from very dirty diesel trucks or buses, are invisibly small particles. They are like tiny sponges that soak up toxic organic material that is also a product of fossil fuel combustion. The aerosols are so small that they penetrate human tissue deeply when breathed into the lungs, and some of the tiniest particles enter the blood stream. Particulate air pollution, including black carbon aerosol, has been increasingly implicated in respiratory and cardiac problems. A recent study in Europe (8) estimated that air pollution caused annually 40,000 deaths, 25,000 new cases of chronic bronchitis, 290,000 episodes of bronchitis in children, and 500,000 asthma attacks in France, Switzerland and Austria alone, with a net cost from the human health impacts equal to 1.6 percent of their gross domestic product. Pollution levels and health effects in the United States are at a comparable level. Primary sources of black carbon in the West are diesel fuels and coal burning.
The human costs of particulate air pollution in the developing world are staggering. A study recently published (9) concluded that about 270,000 Indian children under the age of five die per year from acute respiratory infections arising from particulate air pollution. In this case the air pollution is caused mainly by low temperature inefficient burning of field residue, cow dung, biomass and coal within households for the purpose of cooking and heating. Pollution levels in China are comparably bad, but in China residential coal use is the largest source, followed by residential use of biofuels (10).
Estimated change of climate forcings between 1850 and 2000, based on (1) with five principal aerosols delineated.
Referring back to Figure 2, note that there are several aerosols that cause cooling, in addition to black carbon that causes warming. There are ongoing efforts to slow the growth of sulfur emissions or reduce emissions absolutely, for the purpose of reducing acid rain. In our alternative scenario for climate forcings, it is assumed that any reduced sulfate cooling will be at least matched by reduced black carbon heating. Principal opportunities in the West are for cleaner more efficient diesel motors and cleaner more efficient coal burning at utilities. Opportunities in the developing world include use of biogas in place of solid fuels for household use, and eventually use of electrical energy produced at central power plants.
Ozone (O3). Chemical emissions that lead to tropospheric ozone formation are volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides (carbon monoxide and methane also contribute). Primary sources of these chemicals are transportation vehicles, power plants and industrial processes.
High levels of ozone have adverse health and ecosystem effects. Annual costs of the impacts on human health and crop productivity are each estimated to be on the order of $10 billion per year in the United States alone.
Ozone in the free troposphere can have a lifetime of weeks, and thus tropospheric ozone is at least a hemispheric if not a global problem. Emissions in Asia are projected to have a small effect on air quality in the United States (11). Closer neighbors can have larger effects, for example, recent ozone increases in Japan are thought to be due in large part to combustion products from China, Korea and Japan (12). A coordinated reduction of those chemical emissions that lead to the formation of low level ozone would be beneficial to developing and developed countries.
Our alternative scenario assumes that it will be possible, at minimum, to stop further growth of tropospheric ozone. Recent evidence suggests that tropospheric ozone is decreasing downwind of regions such as Western Europe (13), where nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide emissions are now controlled, but increasing downwind of East Asia (12). Global warming may aggravate summer time ozone production, but this feedback effect would be reduced with the small warming in the alternative scenario. The evidence suggests that cleaner energy sources and improved combustion technology could achieve an overall ozone reduction.
Methane (CH4). Methane today causes a climate forcing half as large as that of CO2, if its indirect effects on stratospheric H2O and tropospheric O3 are included. The atmospheric lifetime of CH4 is moderate, only 8-10, years, so if its sources were reduced, the atmospheric amount would decline rather quickly. Therefore it offers a great opportunity for a greenhouse gas success story. It would be possible to stabilize atmospheric CH4 by reducing the sources by about 10%, and larger reductions could bring an absolute decrease of atmospheric CH4 amount.
The primary natural source of methane is microbial decay of organic matter under anoxic conditions in wetlands. Anthropogenic sources, which in sum may be twice as great as the natural source, include rice cultivation, domestic ruminants, bacterial decay in landfills and sewage, leakage during the mining of fossil fuels, leakage from natural gas pipelines, and biomass burning.
There are a number of actions that could be taken to reduce CH4 emissions: (1) capture of methane in coal mining, landfills, and waste management, (2) reduction of pipeline leakage, especially from antiquated systems such as in the former Soviet Union, (3) reduction of methane from ruminants and rice growing, as the farmers' objectives are to produce meat, milk and power from the animals, not methane, and food and fiber from the fields, not methane.
The economic benefits of such methane reductions are not so great that they are likely to happen automatically. Methane reduction probably requires international cooperation, including developing countries. Although the task is nontrivial, it represents an opportunity for a success story. In some sense, methane in climate change is analogous to the role of methyl-chloroform in ozone depletion. Although the growth of long-lived chlorofluorocarbons has only begun to flatten out, stratospheric chlorine is already declining in amount because of reductions in the sources of short-lived methyl-chloroform.